Ethena (ENA) will dominate ether.fi dollars, USDe reaches $4.8 billion: key watershed

ether.fi will issue its own U.S. dollar stablecoins, which will be constructed and operated by Ethena.

On October 6, 2026, ether.fi and Ethena announced a cooperation: ether.fi USD stablecoins will be issued on Ethena's Whitelabel platform. In this cooperation, ether.fi retains its brand identity and distribution channels, while Ethena undertakes core operational tasks such as reserve management, casting, redemption and compliance review.

Despite the heavy news, the news did not have a positive impact on market prices this week. According to CoinGecko's data as of 3 p.m. Friday, the ENA token traded at $0.2156 on Friday, down 11.6% from the seventh day before.

The reasons for price fluctuations are mainly due to the token allocation mechanism and the broader market environment, rather than problems with the business itself. On October 5, the Ethena Foundation released the last batch of tokens to investors at one time; then on October 8, the agreed net outflow reached US$104 million. At the same time, the ENA repurchase mechanism that supports the core of the token's valuation remains closed. According to regulations, the repurchase mechanism will only be activated when the USDe supply exceeds US$7.5 billion. USde's current supply is only US$4.8 billion.

ether.fi USD adopts Erena white label model: clear division of rights and responsibilities

White-label services are Ethena's solution for other platforms, allowing partners to issue U.S. dollar stablecoins under their own brands without building their own underlying infrastructure. According to existing reports, in the cooperation case of ether.fi, Ethena fully took over the reserve, casting, redemption and compliance processes, covering the entire operation process; while ether.fi is mainly responsible for providing brand names and customer resources.

"White label" refers to a model where a product is manufactured by one party's supplier and the other party sells it under its own brand. Currently, platforms such as Jupiter and MegaETH are also using Ethena's platform service.

Its business logic is clear: ether.fi said it holds more than US$300 million in stablecoin deposits, which are currently held in tokens of other companies. If you move it to a private-brand dollar stablecoin, the income generated by the reserve will be retained internally. As for how the proceeds will be divided between ether.fi and Ethena, neither party has disclosed details. In addition, details such as the launch date, supported blockchain networks and the composition of collateral have not yet been determined. Ethena pointed out that USDe and USDtb issued by Anchorage Digital Bank are available as collateral options for the platform.

Due to the lack of specific launch time, this announcement is currently more about the business model than a commitment to specific financial data. Each additional white-label customer expands Ethena's revenue base. However, whether this translates into demand for tokens depends on the second condition mentioned below.

ENA price analysis: Weekly decline reached 11.6%

All price data in this section comes from CoinGecko, and the statistical time is 3 pm on Friday. The current price of ENA is US$0.2156, which rose slightly by 0.12% during the day and was almost flat. But on a weekly basis, prices fell by 11.6%, while in the past 30 days, prices have risen by 33.6%. Therefore, the monthly increase is actually greater than the weekly decline, and it is easy to ignore this long-term trend by observing only the weekly.

The week's high was on October 5 at $0.2625; the low was on October 8 at $0.1965. Three days apart between these two time points, the price difference is as high as about 25%. The current market value is US$2.89 billion, ranking 41st, with daily trading volume reaching US$545 million. Compared with the all-time high of $1.52 set on April 11, 2024, the current price has dropped by 85.8%.

This sequence of trends is worth noting: the weekly high occurred on the day of the token release, while the weekly low occurred three days later on Thursday, when the entire crypto market suffered a sell-off. It can be seen that the release of tokens itself did not directly lead to a price collapse.

Token release on October 5: one-time release of 1.41 billion ENA

The Ethena Foundation announced the change on August 27, 2026, and will be implemented on October 5. Instead of the original monthly linear release plan, a one-time release method was adopted this time: a total of 1.41 billion ENAs, worth approximately US$212 million (based on current prices), accounting for 14.3% of the current supply. This means that the monthly release calendar, which the market has been referring to since its launch, ended about 17 months earlier than originally planned.

Before the release, the foundation bought back shares from some early investors, especially those who sold after the October 2025 high. The foundation's reason is that since investors will eventually choose to sell, there is no need to repeat the selling process every month. The tokens held by the team were not affected by this and still followed the original plan.

According to CoinGecko's data, the current circulation supply is 13.41 billion ENAs, and the total supply is 15 billion. Based on this calculation, there are still 1.59 billion coins not in circulation, accounting for about one-tenth of the total supply.

On October 8, the net outflow from the agreement reached US$104 million, a record high since July.

On October 8, the net inflow from the Ethena Agreement reached US$104 million, the highest outflow recorded since July. During the same trading session, ENA prices fell about 11% and hit a weekly low.

Although there is a correlation between outflows and price declines, a causal link has not been confirmed. The outflow of the agreement means that the holder is redeeming USDe rather than directly selling ENA tokens. The two may be driven by common factors, such as a narrowing of the spread between funding rates and risk-free yields, but this does not mean that the former will inevitably trigger the latter. In addition, October 8 was also the day when Bitcoin fell below US$81,000 and the overall market corrected.

Why outflows have a greater impact on ENA than other tokens

In Ethena's economic model, the revenue end is directly linked to the size of USDe. The smaller the USDe size, the less interest-bearing reserves will be, which in turn leads to less funds for future repurchase. In this scenario, the outflow of funds represents a contraction in the base size rather than a purely market sentiment issue. Similarly, the size of USDe also determines whether the repurchase mechanism is activated.

Fee Switch and USDe threshold of US$7.5 billion

The "Fee Switch" is a mechanism that directs agreement revenue to ENA repos. The relevant governance vote ended and passed on September 2, 2026, but the switch has not yet been activated.

Definition: Fee switch refers to the redirection of part of the agreement's revenue to token holders, in this case through an open market repurchase.

Startup conditions: 只有当 USDe 供应量的 14 日平均值超过 75 亿美元时，通过该开关路由的收入的 95% 才会进入回购池。随着供应量的增加，通过开关路由的收入比例也将分步提升：从 75 亿美元时的 5%，到 100 亿美元时的 10%，再到 150 亿美元时的 15%。关于更高阶梯的比例，不同来源说法不一，有消息称从 200 亿美元起为 20%，从 250 亿美元起为 25%。具体比例需待完整的治理决策公布后方可确定。

基金会预计，在第一步阶段，假设底层头寸回报率为 6%，每年可用于回购的资金约为 2,250 万美元。

关键在于距离目标的差距。CoinGecko 数据显示，USDe 的市值为 48 亿美元（对应 48.1 亿枚流通代币）。这意味着距离第一步阈值还有约 27 亿美元的缺口，供应量需要增长约 56%。回顾 2025 年 10 月，USDe 规模曾接近 150 亿美元，因此这条路曾经走过一次，只是方向相反。

目前，开关虽已获批，但无人操作：直到 USDe 达到 75 亿美元，控制台将保持无人值守状态。

Delta 对冲：USDe 收益的来源与风险

定义：Delta 对冲是指通过建立相反方向的期货头寸来抵消现货头寸，从而使价格波动相互抵消。

USDe operates based on this principle. Agreed to hold crypto assets and sell corresponding futures contracts to them. On paper, the value of the dollar remains stable, while the gains come from the Funding Rate paid by long holders to short sellers. Funding rates are the price paid by bulls for their leverage.

Risk: Funding rates are not guaranteed to always be positive. If market sentiment reverses and short sellers start to pay long positions, the agreement will not be able to earn gains or even require expenditures at this stage. As a result, USDe is not a euro or dollar token backed by bank deposits, but a synthetic dollar whose return depends on market conditions. This is the fundamental difference between it and tokens backed by bank balances.

Key prices: US$0.2625 and US$0.1965

This week's two extremes are the focus of attention in the near term, not the exact price target. The upper resistance is at this week's high of $0.2625 (October 5), with an integer mark of $0.25 sandwiched between. The support below is the week's low of $0.1965 (October 8), and below it is the integer level of $0.20, which prices briefly fell below on Thursday.

The current valuation logic for ENA is mainly based on the numerical performance of USDe rather than the chart form. The $7.5 billion threshold is the only key figure that can translate agreement revenue into actual token buying pressure. Analyst price targets coexist: Standard Chartered Bank launched an coverage rating on September 30, predicting $0.42 in 2026,$1.10 in 2027, and $2.00 in 2028, but clearly stated that this is based on the assumption that the fee switch will take effect. This is only the bank's view, not the prediction of this editorial department.

StablecoinX and locked positions: 12% or 22.8%?

During the reorganization, a large holder watched. StablecoinX, a treasury company built around ENA, held approximately 20% of its supply during the lock-up period, and its release on October 5 did not touch that share, according to SEC filings.

Data on total lockdown amounts are contradictory among different sources. Ethena said post-change lockups accounted for approximately 12% of supply, while its own unlocking plan listed 22.8%. Averaging is convenient and inaccurate; these two numbers clearly measure different pools of funds. CoinGecko's data is certain: 13.41 billion of the 15 billion ENAs are in circulation.

MiCA, custody and holding period: Note to investors

Regardless of the price trend, the following four points can be verified before purchasing:

• Purchase channel: Whether the platform provides ENA or USDe to European customers depends on its MiCA (European Union Cryptographic Asset Market Regulation) authorization and its own product list. Please be sure to check with the provider before placing an order.
• Custody method: ENA is a standard ERC-20 token that supports self-custody. For large positions, the key should be stored in the hardware wallet rather than in the exchange account.
• Income risk: Holding USDe to gain income means taking capital rate risk. Please compare the stated rate of return with other platforms and examine the sources of revenue for each platform.
• Holding periods and leverage: The tax treatment of private sales varies by country. In Germany, under current law, income after the holding period exceeds one year is exempt. Converting ENA to USDe is considered a sale and will reset the timer. Leveraged transactions on tokens that fluctuate by 25% over a week are easily cleared; clearing thresholds should be included in the calculation before placing an order, rather than being remedied afterwards.

Summary: Without USDe, there would be no ENA repurchase

This week, Ethena welcomed its second white-label customer, ending investors 'monthly release calendar, but causing prices to fall by 11.6%. A key number that determines whether all this is good for tokens is the supply of USDe.

Tracking USDe supply: The current threshold of $4.8 billion is $7.5 billion. If that number rises within a few weeks, buybacks will be closer to reality; if it falls, the valuation base will be shaken. For a comparison between USDe and other stablecoins, please refer to the stablecoin comparison column.

Check revenue sources: Compare USDe's returns with other products and ask each platform's revenue source. For an overview of terms, please refer to the Pledge and Income Platform column.

Determine the purchase path before prices become tight: Provider authorizations, product lists and fees are fixed before an order is placed, but prices change. The Exchange Comparison Section makes this check easier.

(As of October 9, 2026. This article does not constitute investment advice. Price and fee structures are subject to change; please check terms with your provider before purchasing.)