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BTC Wintermute: ETF fund outflow and miners selling delay Bitcoin range breaks through
According to Wintermute's latest market report, Bitcoin is struggling to maintain the bottom of its June range after the US spot Bitcoin ETF flowed out of US$390 million last week. The trading house pointed out that falling expectations for interest rate cuts failed to boost Bitcoin, while ETF redemptions and miners selling left the market lacking a strong source of new demand.
ETF funding flows failed to support Bitcoin's recovery in August.
Wintermute pointed out that July's CPI rose 0.1% month-on-month, reducing the probability of a September interest rate cut from roughly 50 to about one-third. Retail sales also recorded the largest decline since May 2025. However, markets barely rebounded: the S & P 500 rose just 0.40%, long-term Treasuries fell 0.87%, and Bitcoin performed the worst, down 3.12%. CoinGecko data shows that the cryptocurrency is currently trading at around $64,000, rising 1.2% in 24 hours. But it has fallen nearly 1% in the past 30 days, 49% below its all-time high in October 2025.
Brent crude oil rose 7.91%, as ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz plummeted from 31 last week to 5 on Saturday and zero on Sunday, the 60-day ceasefire expired and negotiations stalled. If the situation escalates again and keeps Brent crude oil around US$89, August CPI data will be at risk.
For Wintermute, this combination deserves attention. Lower expectations for interest rate cuts usually benefit risky assets, but Bitcoin has not responded. The agency said the market was moving towards a situation where "inflation issues appear to be shifting from the hands of the Federal Reserve to the hands of oil."
ETFs are also weak. Between August 10 and 14, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF flowed out of approximately US$390 million, the largest weekly redemption since early July. Bitcoin ETF recorded positive inflows only one trading day last week, with an outflow of $145 million on Monday,$61 million on Wednesday,$131 million on Thursday, and nearly $58 million on Friday. Net inflows on Tuesday were just under $5 million.
"An asset that cannot rise on positive news while its exclusive product continues to bleed blood tells us that marginal sellers have returned, weakening the 'exhaustion' argument we have held since Week 31," the trading house wrote.
Miner sell-off adds new problems
Wintermute also cited Riot Platforms as an example, pointing out that miners may still be a source of supply for Bitcoin. The company sold 4300 bitcoins in the second quarter, after selling 3778 in the first quarter. Its position dropped to 11,380 bitcoins, and mining costs were close to US$91,000 per unit. Bitcoin traded below $64,000, causing Riot to lose a quarter of $237 million.
Riot is also shifting part of its business to artificial intelligence data centers, where the miner has allegedly agreed to provide Anthropic with 191 megawatts of power capacity under a 20-year contract worth US$9.1 billion.
However, the ETF situation is not all negative. Jane Street disclosed that as of the second quarter, it held more than $1 billion in U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, including approximately $828 million in IBIT. However, the document only showed quarter-end positions and did not cover the company's entire derivatives exposure.
