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BTC The ratio of Bitcoin to Nasdaq is close to extreme levels of past bear markets
Bitcoin's performance relative to Nasdaq has fallen back to the bottom of previous major crypto bear markets. The ratio of Bitcoin to Nasdaq has fallen 62.2% from its recent high, a decline that is close to the depth of the previous cycle compared with the 68.5% decline in the 2021-2022 crypto cycle. Specifically, the 62.2% ratio decline is about 90% of the relative retracement of 68.5% in the previous cycle.
The ratio fell by 75.7% in 2018 and by 68.5% in the 2021-2022 cycle. Although the current contraction is small, it is close to the magnitude recorded near previous market lows. Some people point out that the 2026 low may have formed around June 30, when the 62.2% decline was about 90% of the 68.5% decline in the previous cycle. However, the data was circulated in early August, so it reflects a relatively weak snapshot before the month's sharp rebound. In addition, the ratio measures Bitcoin's performance relative to technology stock benchmarks, rather than price retractions of the asset itself. It is estimated that Bitcoin fell by approximately 83% between its December 2017 peak and its December 2018 low, and then fell by approximately 77% between November 2021 and November 2022. In contrast, ratios track competition between two markets. Earlier this year, the competition shifted significantly to technology stocks. Reports showed that Bitcoin fell 13.4% in the second quarter, while the Nasdaq 100 index surged 27.7%. By July, the asset had fallen by 32.9% during the year. This divergence has been attributed to weakening structural demand, tightening liquidity and concerns about digital asset inventories being sold, leaving crypto assets lagging behind even as growth stocks strengthen.
Bitcoin's August rebound rekindled concerns about June cycle lows
After entering June, the relative pattern changed. Bitcoin rebounded from a low of about $58,500 at the end of June and rose to above $80,000 in August, narrowing a previous performance gap. In addition, from August 17 to 21, the net inflow of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF was US$1.92 billion, the strongest weekly inflow since October 2025, providing demand support for the rebound. As of August 26, there is a view that with the rapid recovery, the outlook for cryptocurrencies has turned more bullish. On August 30, Bitcoin traded at approximately $78,200 after hitting more than $81,000.
Despite this, macro conditions remain important. The Federal Reserve Chairman's Jackson Hole speech emphasized persistent inflation and increased market expectations for tightening monetary policy. The Nasdaq index fell 0.52% on Friday, while Bitcoin fell more than 3%. Traders also raised the probability of a September rate hike from about 35% to more than 55%. Therefore, historical comparisons provide background references rather than confirmation signals. Bitcoin's poor performance has reached extreme levels in past bear markets, but a 62.2% decline alone cannot establish a bottom. The June low remains the core reference point. Continued relatively strong performance, continued ETF demand, and greater liquidity will provide more reliable evidence than a single comparison of historical ratios.
