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XRP XRP's next move depends on these key price levels: Analysts
XRP is currently trading at around $1.35, down about 6% in the past week, falling below a support level that chart analysts have been closely watching since late August.
trader ChartNerd said the token failed to close above the 50-week moving average for the second time, opening up room for a deeper correction to $1.27 or even lower before resuming the previous rally that pushed XRP to $1.70.
Bulls lose US$1.36 support
ChartNerd has been tracking the XRP four-hour structure for weeks, focusing on a range formed below US$1.47 resistance and above US$1.36 support. This support level has now been exceeded twice. According to analysts, the price was rejected from $1.43 and formed another lower high below the bearish trend signal of $1.39.
To zoom in, this trend can be traced back to August 22, when XRP hit a multi-month high of $1.70. The rally followed the broader market, which was triggered by Bitcoin's surge from below $65,000 to $80,000, pushing XRP up 70% in three days after a difficult start at the beginning of the month, when it briefly fell below $1.00. Despite the subsequent correction, the XRP ended August still slightly below $1.40, with a monthly increase of 30%.
ChartNerd pointed out the risk of a pullback the day after hitting the high, warning that a weekly close below the 50 moving average "will be an early warning sign of a larger pullback." And then it did: it closed below that moving average for two consecutive weeks, and analysts believed the correction was about 22%. In this case, the next support level is the weekly 20 moving average, currently at $1.27.
There will be no recovery unless $1.50 is recovered.
ChartNerd sets resistance levels above the current price: $1.40 to $1.43, then $1.47, then $1.65,$1.82 and $2.40. On the downside side, the prices of concern are $1.30,$1.27,$1.21 and $0.85, with the last price being related to the funding range that analysts have been warning since June.
Broader bottom confirmation depends on the golden cross that has not yet formed. XRP's moving average is narrowing, with prices trapped below the 50-week moving average and above the 20-week moving average. ChartNerd was reluctant to assert that a bottom had been formed before regaining and stabilizing the two moving averages, comparing the current trend to the compression period before the August breakout.
The spot XRP ETF still attracted more than $110 million last week, the strongest inflow since December, which has led some traders to think a faster reversal could occur than the chart itself suggests.
September itself has some catalysts, including a Senate vote on the CLARITY bill around September 15 and a shareholder vote on Evernorth's plans to list on the Nasdaq. But none of this changes the technical side described by ChartNerd: XRP is suppressed below resistance, and before this changes, there is still the possibility of falling further to $1.27 or lower.
