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BTC Bitcoin's trend converges with gold, and its correlation with technology stocks weakens
After experiencing a strong rebound of 25% in August, the price trend of Bitcoin (BTC) is gradually moving closer to gold, while its correlation with technology stocks is further reduced. As U.S. bond yields rise and market expectations for interest rate hikes heat up, Bitcoin's status as a "safe-haven asset" is facing challenges.
Overview of key data
1. Correlation has changed significantly: The 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and gold has exceeded 50%, while its correlation with the Nasdaq 100 Index has dropped to about 33%.
2. Macroeconomic pressure intensifies: The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.79% on September 1, putting huge pressure on risky assets.
3. Expectations for interest rate hikes heat up: The market expects the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in September to be about 60%. At the same time, international oil prices continue to remain high above US$90 per barrel.
Liquidity analysis in a macro context
Analysts pointed out that changes in Bitcoin correlation occur in a more severe macroeconomic context. Investors are weighing renewed tensions between the U.S. and Iran, rising energy prices and tightening financial conditions.
On September 1, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.79%, the highest level since January 2025. Major U.S. stock indexes also fell that day. In addition, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh said inflation remained a major concern, prompting money markets to raise the probability of a September rate hike to about 60%. Staying high oil prices further increases inflation risks, and this combination typically increases demand for traditional defensive assets.
Clarification on liquidity: There is a view that tightening liquidity has affected the market, but it should be clear that the $12.5 billion transaction planned for September 3 is a cash management repurchase operation by the U.S. Treasury Department, not a direct purchase by the Federal Reserve. Although the Federal Reserve Bank of New York plans to make a reinvested purchase of approximately US$17 billion through September 14, this is different in nature from the Treasury's repurchase.
Gray Scale Research: Returning to the "Anti-devaluation" Logic from Technological Attributes
According to data released by Grayscale Research on August 27, the 90-day correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and gold has risen from near-zero level at the beginning of the year to more than 50%; at the same time, its correlation coefficient with the Nasdaq 100 Index has dropped from more than 60% to about 33%.
Zach Pandl, head of research at Gray Scale, interpreted the shift as a possible return to the market for "debasement trade". The importance of this change is that Bitcoin has previously often behaved as a high-beta technology asset rather than a currency hedging instrument. Today, its ties to gold have strengthened and its relationship with Nasdaq have weakened, indicating that its market behavior is changing. However, correlation data alone is not enough to establish its permanent safe-haven asset status.
Market Performance and Future Outlook
TradingView data cited in the report showed that the XAU/BTC (gold/bitcoin) ratio rose more than 1.2% this month, ending the previous two-month decline. Since gold is the numerator in this ratio, an increase in the ratio means that gold performs better than Bitcoin, so this data alone does not prove that Bitcoin outperforms gold.
Bitcoin entered its current testing phase against the backdrop of a gain of about 25% in August, which previously strengthened its argument as a "store of value" tool, before macro conditions tightened again. Looking back at the beginning of 2026, Bitcoin's correlation with gold is close to zero, and its correlation with Nasdaq exceeds 60%. Although the current transformation is eye-catching, it is still a recent phenomenon, and the market continues to observe its long-term positioning.
