The activity of old Bitcoin players has doubled, and 1500 BTC has been transferred

Spending activity of "old coin" holders who have held Bitcoin for more than five years has doubled since May

Spending activity of those who have held Bitcoin for more than five years and have not moved for a long time has doubled since May this year, bringing the average spending of this group over the past 90 days to approximately 1,500 BTC. This activity has increased significantly as Bitcoin continues to trade within narrow bands. However, on-chain data shows that old coins have been moved, but this does not directly confirm that a sell-off has occurred. Some of the increase in wallet activity may be related to security concerns related to Coldcard.

Senior Bitcoin holders take action

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost pointed out that during the recent consolidation of Bitcoin prices, activity among the oldest holders has increased. The analyst defines this group as investors who have held Bitcoin for more than five years without a transaction before moving the coin onto the chain.

During this consolidation phase, the activity of senior holders intensified significantly. According to the data, the 90-day moving average of UTXO (unspent transaction output) spent by holders who have held BTC for more than 5 years has climbed to 1,500 BTC. As you know, UTXO stands for unspent trade output. [TAG

Darkfost reports that the 90-day moving average of spent output for this population has reached about 1,500 BTC, double the May level. Moving averages smooth out daily fluctuations, making them less sensitive to isolated transfers from a few large wallets.

The current average of 1,500 BTC is also about 56% higher than the 962 BTC reported on June 24. At the time, the reading fell below 1,000 BTC for the first time, indicating that activity among older holders has slowed to its lowest point in nearly two years. It has been previously reported that early peaks will occur in May 2024, February 2025 and September 2025. The daily trading volume during these periods exceeded 10,000 BTC and 30,000 BTC respectively, and one of them even reached 142,000 BTC.

Darkfost links the latest growth to the uncertainty caused by the consolidation of Bitcoin. He said even investors who have gone through multiple market cycles appear to be more active, although the data cannot identify the reasons behind each transaction.

As of press time, Bitcoin was trading at approximately US$79,600, down approximately 1.8% from the previous day, with an intraday low of US$78,723 and a high of US$81,370. After several violent fluctuations around this level, Bitcoin has struggled to establish a lasting trend beyond $80,000.

Spending UTXO does not prove that Bitcoin has been sold

Spending UTXO records Bitcoin used as input for a new transaction. Because the Bitcoin ledger tracks transaction output rather than account balances, the output is considered "spent" whenever the owner transfers a coin to another address.

Simple movement does not determine the purpose of the transaction. Investors can send BTC to an exchange for sale, transfer it to a new custodian, combine multiple outputs, spread balances among different wallets, or replace old settings.

Darkfost warned that the average of 1,500 BTC should not be regarded as a confirmed selling signal. Some transactions may represent the holder moving coins to a more secure storage location after a Coldcard security incident, rather than withdrawing a position.

Destination data provides stronger evidence when old wallets send coins to addresses marked as exchanges or trading companies. Even so, deposit on an exchange only indicates that Bitcoin is available for trading and does not establish that the owner has completed the sale. Recent dormant wallet transfers illustrate this limitation. During a 10-day period in August, six wallets that had been almost dormant for more than 12 to 15 years transferred $40.15 million worth of BTC.

Five of the transfers went to addresses with no known exchange connection. A wallet sent 40 BTC to an address labeled Boerse Stuttgart Digital, an institution that provides custody and trading infrastructure. Neither the unmarked destination nor the custodian provider has been able to establish whether the owner sold, changed the custodian, or reorganized its position. Another 28 dormant wallets transferred 1,314.41 BTC on August 20, including more than 1,200 BTC from addresses created in 2014. The blockchain records these transfers, but does not reveal the owner's intentions.

Coldcard event complicates on-chain interpretation

Coldcard event caused unusual Bitcoin activity after a firmware vulnerability exposed mnemonics generated by the affected hardware wallet model. Users are advised to create new mnemons and shift their positions because installing revised firmware cannot repair credentials generated by vulnerable software.

In early August, K33 Research found that nearly 890,000 BTC had moved in seven days, the highest seven-day active supply surge in 2026. The surge comes as Bitcoin is trading within its narrowest 30-day trading range since 2023, distinguishing increased online activity from a major price breakthrough.

Researchers attributed some of the activity to Coldcard users migrating funds and attackers emptying vulnerable wallets. Galaxy Research confirmed before August 5 that 1,596 BTC was stolen from approximately 7,300 addresses in the three-wave attack. Galaxy estimates that if the suspected fourth wave of attacks is confirmed, losses could reach about 2,055 BTC, worth close to $130 million at the time. According to the research agency, about 90 percent of stolen bitcoins have not moved since the initial attack.

Transfers made to migrate mnemonics still consume the old UTXO, thus driving up the payout metric even if the owner retains control of the coin. If affected wallets contain bitcoins that have not been touched for five years or more, the impact could ripple to age-based groups.

Wallet consolidation will produce similar results. Consolidating several old outputs into a new output records the original UTXO as spent and does not change the owner's total balance except for network charges.

U.S. investors can hold Bitcoin without managing mnemonics

For U.S. investors, the Coldcard incident has renewed attention to the custody difference between directly held bitcoin and spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) shares. The direct holder controls the amount of BTC that can be spent, but is still responsible for mnemonic creation, backup, firmware updates, and wallet migration. ETF investors do not manage private keys because the fund and its service providers are responsible for custody.

Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, said in August that Coldcard's losses have strengthened support for ETFs from investors who only want exposure to bitcoin prices. Earlier reports on U.S. custody issues noted that no verified money flow data directly linked ETF demand to the event. Investor reactions may also include multi-signature wallets, new hardware devices, institutional custodians or spreading funds among several storage methods.

According to a filing with the SEC by BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust, the trust uses Coinbase Custody to hold its bitcoins in an isolated cold storage wallet. The trust may also use Anchorage Digital Bank as an additional custodian.

ETF ownership transfers personal mnemonic risk to fund operators, custodians and other service providers. BlackRock's filing warns that hacking, employee misconduct, technical failures and unauthorized transfers can still lead to losses, and available insurance may not cover all incidents. Unlike direct holders, retail ETF shareholders cannot withdraw the underlying bitcoin into personal wallets or use it for on-chain payments. Fund shares are traded during U.S. market trading hours, while Bitcoin trading is available 24/7.