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BTC The correlation between Bitcoin and gold will strengthen again in 2026
In 2026, the correlation between Bitcoin and gold will increase significantly. The correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and gold has climbed from near zero at the beginning of the year to more than 50%, while its 90-day correlation coefficient with the Nasdaq 100 Index has dropped from more than 60% to around 30%-33%. This change shows that Bitcoin is returning to the narrative logic of "digital gold".
Why did Bitcoin start to fluctuate in the same direction as gold?
The strengthening of the relationship between Bitcoin and gold was particularly reflected after the market rebound in mid-August. On August 19, the U.S. Treasury Department announced that it would increase the single limit on long-term government debt liquidity to support repurchase operations from US$2 billion to at least US$4 billion. In the days after the news was announced, the price of Bitcoin quickly exceeded the US$80,000 mark from below US$65,000, while the spot price of gold also rose from US$4,350 to US$4,700 per ounce.
Kobeissi Letter pointed out that the correlation between Bitcoin and gold accelerated after the U.S. Treasury Department took action. Zach Pandl, research director at Grayscale, also emphasized that the correlation between Bitcoin and gold has jumped from near zero at the beginning of the year to more than 50%.
So why are these two assets strengthening at the same time?
As U.S. federal debt crosses the $40 trillion mark, persistent budget deficits and growing concerns about declining long-term purchasing power of fiat currencies, the "Debasement Trade" strategy has once again become the focus of the market. Under this strategic framework, due to their scarce supply characteristics, both gold and Bitcoin are regarded as alternative assets to withstand currency devaluation.
Is Bitcoin breaking away from Nasdaq?
The other side of the story involves technology stocks. The 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 Index has dropped from more than 60% to about 30%-33%. This is an important shift because Bitcoin has long behaved like a high-beta technology asset: it performs strongly when technology stocks rise, and tends to fall simultaneously when market risk appetite deteriorates.
The rebound in August is a typical example of this divergence. Bitcoin rose more than 20% in just a few days, and the U.S. stock market did not respond to the same level. During a three-month window, Bitcoin underperformed the S & P 500 in nearly half of the trading days, but the relationship subsequently reversed.
This change is significant because it strengthens the view that investors are no longer just viewing Bitcoin as a speculative and risky asset, but are starting to view it as a separate asset class with scarce supply attributes and unique currency characteristics.
Can this divergence continue?
It is too early to say this. The link between Bitcoin and stocks has not been completely severed. Bitcoin and the U.S. stock market fell back simultaneously after Friday's strong U.S. jobs data, suggesting that the relationship between the two could still strengthen again within a certain period of time.
The key is that correlations are not static. As the macro environment changes, the main asset objects linked by Bitcoin will also change accordingly.
Despite this, the current market landscape is eye-catching: on the one hand, Bitcoin is becoming increasingly convergent with gold, and on the other hand, it is gradually moving away from Nasdaq. This divergence could intensify further if debt problems, fiscal deficits and fears of currency devaluation once again dominate market sentiment.
The content of this article is based on general market data and does not constitute investment advice. Readers are advised to conduct independent research.
