Bitcoin Weekly Chart: Can spot buyers break through $79,600 and $82,800?

Core Points

The 50-week simple moving average (SMA) is around US$79,600.

US$82,000 -82,800 constitutes the main breakthrough area.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) showed stronger momentum than in May.

Futures trading volume is about 15 times that of spot trading volume.

ETF fund flow turned negative on September 8.

Bitcoin faces two separate weekly resistance levels

On Bitstamp's BTC/USD weekly chart, the first obstacle is the downward 50-week simple moving average, which is currently around $79,600. At the time of chart capture, Bitcoin prices were approximately $1,100 below this level, making the average approximately 1.4% above the market price.

If the weekly closing price stands above this moving average, it will help Bitcoin return above important long-term trend indicators. But this does not mean a bigger breakthrough has been completed, because the resistance level that prevented the May rebound is still higher.

The second resistance zone extends to approximately US$82,000 to US$82,800, including a May high near US$82,790. Therefore, although breaking the 50-week moving average will improve the chart shape, Bitcoin still needs to overcome its previous highs before it can rebound into a stronger stage.

RSI shows stronger momentum than the weekly RSI in May, which is in the upper half of more than 50 points, compared with around 50-52 when testing resistance in May. Bitcoin is approaching the same broad price range previously with higher momentum readings.

This comparison is not a textbook bullish divergence. Traditional bullish divergences usually require prices to form lower lows while RSI forms higher lows. Instead, Bitcoin returned to its early resistance zone with stronger relative momentum.

Although the RSI is still below 70, this does not provide an independent buy signal or guarantee further gains. The value lies in comparing the intensity of two attacks to resistance.

The current weekly candle chart has more than four days to close when the chart is captured. Prices and RSI may change before the close, so these unfinished readings should not be regarded as confirmation signals.

In addition, the RSI cannot show whether the rally was driven by direct purchases of Bitcoin or by leveraged contracts. To distinguish this, a deeper look at spot and derivatives activity is needed.

Futures activity still far exceeds spot trading volume

CoinGlass data shows that Bitcoin's 24-hour futures trading volume is approximately US$61.6 billion, while spot trading volume is approximately US$4 billion. As a result, at this reading, futures turnover was approximately 15.4 times spot activity.

This difference suggests that derivatives account for the majority of measured trading turnover. But this does not reveal whether traders are bullish or bullish, because every futures trade has buyers and sellers.

Bitcoin open contract positions are close to US$53.2 billion. This figure represents open derivatives exposure, but in the absence of time series comparisons, it is impossible to establish whether leverage has increased in the near future.

Taken together, these data suggest that Bitcoin's rebound is unfolding in a market dominated by derivatives turnover, with large open positions, but limited evidence suggests that spot demand is strengthening at the same rate. This does not mean that the rally is unsustainable, but the breakout may be more likely to be reversed if leveraged traders withdraw. If spot trading volumes rise as they break through $79,600 and $82,800, it will provide clearer evidence that direct buying is supporting strong weekly momentum.

ETF demand faces follow-up testing

The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of approximately US$1.01 billion in the three trading days from September 2 to September 4. The strongest day was September 3, when funds attracted approximately US$730.9 million.

This day accounted for nearly 73% of the total inflow in the three days, indicating that the inflow was highly concentrated on a certain day. The trend then reversed, with SoSoValue estimating a net outflow of US$46.7 million on September 8.

This outflow did not erase previous demand, but interrupted the positive sequence before Bitcoin cleared any weekly resistance level. If inflows reappear during the breakout period, it would show that U.S. spot ETFs are supporting this trend. Continued outflows will cause breakthroughs to lose more confirmation from this source of demand.

Weekly closing that determines the situation

1. First test: $79,600 for 50-week SMA

The first positive signal will be to complete the weekly close above $79,600. The weight of intraday breakthroughs in this moving average is low, as Bitcoin may fall back below it again before the candle chart closes.

Staying above that moving average in subsequent transactions will allow Bitcoin to challenge the resistance level in May. A weakening immediately after the close above $79,600 would leave the first breakthrough attempt pending.

2. Second test: $82,000 -82,800 resistance zone

Weekly closing above $82,800 will clear the May high and 50-week SMA. Continuing trading above the region in the following week will provide stronger confirmation that previous resistance has turned into support.

A breakthrough would be more convincing if spot trading volume increased and ETF inflows resumed. Although these conditions do not guarantee further gains, they can indicate that the trend is supported by other than derivatives trading.

3. Failure of the resistance test

A rejection and a weekly close below approximately US$77,600 would weaken the rebound and show buyers cannot maintain the current range. By then, the US$75,700 -76,000 region will become the next important support level.

A deeper decline will bring into view near the midpoint of recent gains of $71,800. The $64,000 -66,000 region around the 200-week SMA will become relevant only after a significantly weaker trend. Short intra-day fluctuations should not be used to confirm these weekly downside scenarios.

Spot buyers have not cleared any resistance level

Bitcoin's higher RSI may make the offensive look more promising than the May test, but the price is still below the 50-week SMA and previous highs. Current volume data also shows derivatives dominate, while the latest completed ETF trading session ended in outflows.

Bullish arguments require a weekly close above two resistance levels, supported by more solid spot activity and restored ETF demand. Until then, stronger momentum represented only an improvement rather than confirmation of a lasting breakthrough.