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Following
BTC A key technical signal in the Bitcoin price that has attracted much attention from investors
Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen pointed out that a "golden cross" pattern formed by the 50-day moving average crossing the 200-day moving average appears on the Bitcoin chart. In technical analysis, this is often seen as a bullish signal. However, Cowan said a short-term correction could occur after that, emphasizing that the key lies in the subsequent rebound.
What is the "golden cross" in Bitcoin?
"Golden Crossing" refers to an important technical form formed by the 50-day moving average crossing the 200-day moving average from below. This intersection suggests that short-term price momentum is strengthening relative to long-term trends. As a result, this pattern is usually evaluated as a positive technical signal for Bitcoin in the medium and long term, and is closely watched by investors as one of the indicators of a potential upward trend.
However, Cowan reminds investors that they should not just focus on the bullish signals from the intersection itself. According to his analysis, before the formation of the "golden cross", price increases pushed up the moving average; but after the cross is actually completed, selling pressure may arise in the short term.
Important clues provided by historical cases
Cowan pointed out that past Bitcoin "golden cross" cases provide important reference information. According to his assessment, during the intersection between 2019 and 2023, there was a retracement of approximately 12% to 15%. Cowan believes that the first decline after the "gold cross" should not be regarded as a negative signal alone.
He mentioned in relevant analysis: "Normally, a decline will be seen after the 'gold cross'." This reminds us of the possibility of a short-term correction.
The real signal may come after the decline
For Cowan, the key to determining Bitcoin's trend lies in the strength of the subsequent rebound. If Bitcoin can stabilize and hit higher highs, the bull market scenario could regain momentum. On the contrary, if the rebound is weak and fails to break through the previous high, it may increase market risk. Therefore, investors should not only pay attention to the "golden cross" signal, but also need to closely observe the price structure formed thereafter.
Cowen also proposed a more cautious scenario based on past market cycles. He believes that if the rebound is insufficient, similar to the situation in 2014 and 2015, Bitcoin may face a new round of selling risks in the fourth quarter. In this scenario, the next high formed by Bitcoin is crucial: a higher low could signal an increase in the power of the bulls, while a lower high could be an important technical signal that selling pressure is intensifying again.
Summary assessment
Although Bitcoin's potential "golden cross" may at first glance seem a strong bullish signal, Benjamin Cowan's analysis suggests that short-term risks remain. Given the historical retracements that have occurred after the crossover, investors should focus more on Bitcoin's subsequent reaction than on the first decline itself. In particular, the formation of new highs or lows is crucial for judging the direction of Bitcoin for some time to come.
