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Analysts say the yen and U.S. yields pose the biggest risk to Bitcoin in the near term

2026-09-14 18:35:40

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Japanese yen and U.S. yields pose Bitcoin's biggest near-term risks: Analyst View

Bitcoin (BTC) is entering one of the most decisive trading weeks of the year. The Federal Reserve will announce its September interest rate decision on Wednesday, followed by the Bank of Japan two days later. Current market pricing shows that the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points is about 85%. According to XWIN Japan's analysis, the core issue is not whether interest rates will change, but how hawkish the two major central banks will show after making decisions.

Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan collide with trade threats

XWIN Japan pointed to the scenario it was most worried about: U.S. yields rising in line with the yen. Higher U.S. interest rates will tighten global liquidity, while a strong yen could speed up the unwinding process of yen carry trades, forcing investors to cut their exposure to both stocks and cryptocurrencies. Brent crude oil prices are currently above $100, and the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond is close to 5%. Inflation concerns remain as they enter a critical decision-making period. XWIN pointed out that after the meeting, traders should pay close attention to U.S. yields, U.S. dollar/yen exchange rates, spot Bitcoin ETF capital flows and underlying demand, because this is where the real test starts. Previously, CryptoPotato reported that the market structure has changed rapidly. Non-agricultural employment data in August recorded 162,000, far exceeding economists 'expectations; the producer price index accelerated to an annualized 5.4%. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) released last week confirmed the headline inflation at 3.4%. Affected by this, since Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's speech in Jackson Hole and subsequent strong data release, the price of Bitcoin has slipped from approximately $82,400 to below $78,000. Tuesday will also bring a new catalyst, when the Senate votes in closing debate on the CLARITY Act, which requires 60 votes to advance. In addition, political factors have added to the situation: President Donald Trump has threatened to stop trading with countries with trade deficits with the United States if the Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates. However, the market is currently more inclined to raise interest rates, which runs counter to Trump's wishes. Spot On Chain analyst Hupzy called this a "binary macro catalyst with asymmetric cross-asset risks" and warned that interest rate hikes would put pressure on non-yielding assets, while political compromises could raise questions about the credibility of the dollar.

Price movements are still volatile

As of the most recent inspection, Bitcoin was trading at just above US$78,000. It has risen slightly in the past 24 hours, but has dropped by about 2.5% for the week. Despite a gain of about 23% in the past 30 days, Bitcoin prices are still down nearly 39% from their all-time high of more than $126,000 set in October last year. At the same time, the flow of ETF funds showed a differentiated trend. Spot Bitcoin funds posted a net outflow of $462.73 million over four trading days in the last trading week, the first net outflow week since mid-August. In contrast, the Ethereum (ETH) ETF continued to receive capital inflows, reaching US$216.41 million in a single day on Friday, pushing Ethereum, the world's second-largest cryptocurrency, to an eight-month high.

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