Zcash broke through $1385, while Monero fell below $500 on the same day

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Quick overview

1. ZEC was trading at US$1,373.30, up 16.55% on the day. It previously hit an intraday high of about $1,385 on September 16, extending a gain of about 192% since the first assessment in July this year.

2. Monero fell 1.67% to $495.76 on the same trading day, falling below the $500 mark again. Against the backdrop of the rise of 89 assets in the QC100 index that day, Monero became one of the only 10 assets that fell.

3. The divergence is structural rather than temporary: Grayscale's ZCSH ETF has registered inflows for three consecutive weeks, totaling $358.6 million, while Monero lacks similar financial products.

On Wednesday, the two major privacy coins moved in opposite directions, and the gap between them became the clearest evidence of the actual drivers of the sector.

Why did Zcash rise and Monero fall?

The reason is that the former has U.S. listed exchange-traded products, while the latter does not, and that's the whole difference.

Grayscale's spot Zcash ETF (ZCSH) went public on NYSE Arca on August 25 and recorded a three-week period of consecutive capital inflows totaling US$358.6 million. As of early September, its asset management scale exceeded US$400 million, and tracking data showed that its positions were close to 429,000 ZECs. Fund filing documents can be queried through the SEC EDGAR system. In contrast, Monero does not have any comparable product carrier and has been removed from most regulated trading venues over the past decade.

我们在 8 月对这两种代币进行的比较中，特别强调了 Zcash 在准入条件和监管曝光度方面的优势，同时承认门罗币在隐私性和历史记录方面的优势，并指出该板块的分界线在于“许可”而非“密码学”。随后的 ETF 资金流将这一观点转化为巨大的价格差距。

上周我们进一步阐述了这一观点，指出目前购买“隐私”主题意味着购买 Zcash，而在该板块内分散投资可能会稀释产生回报的集中度，而非分散风险。单日内 ZEC 上涨 16.55% 而 XMR 下跌 1.67% 的现象，正是这一观察结果的最清晰体现。

推动这波行情的其他因素是什么？

网络升级带来的乐观情绪、巨鲸囤积以及空头头寸承压。

9 月 16 日，当更广泛的市场抛售时，ZEC 飙升超过 20%，市场普遍将网络升级预期视为主要驱动力。Zcash 于 7 月 28 日激活了 Ironwood NU6.3 升级，引入了一个新的屏蔽池（shielded pool），旨在使流通供应量的完整性可独立验证。此举是在 5 月发现 Orchard 协议存在健全性漏洞之后采取的。升级文档由 Electric Coin Company 发布。

On-chain trackers reported that on September 16, a giant whale extracted 15,300 ZECs (approximately US$17.92 million) from Binance, OKX and Kraken. A large exchange withdrawal immediately reduces the supply available for sale in the market, but it does not confirm buying intentions or holding plans, and this limit is critical: the data only shows that the token has left the exchange.

In addition, there are concentrated short bets on this rebound. Trader Garrett Jin reportedly opened a short ZEC position worth $46.65 million, covering 39,760 tokens, with a clearing price of approximately $2,540. Earlier this month, the position was reported to have lost $18.4 million. Shorts of this size are both a lack of confidence in the market and could also become fuel if prices continue to rise. Clearing data is updated on CoinGlass.

How much progress has Zcash made?

Since July 8, Zcash has risen by about 192%. At that time, this website published its first structural evaluation, with a ZEC price of US$469.57.

在此路径上提到的每一个关键点位均已得到验证。7 月的标记点是 440 美元作为支撑位，500 美元作为阻力位；两者均被突破。8 月 22 日，代币价格为 821.79 美元时，我们将 1,000 美元识别为市场开始讨论的关键整数关口，并将 Grayscale ETF 及其预期的 8 月 25 日上市列为催化剂。两者如期而至。上周在价格为 1,223 美元时，我们写道，ETF 资金流是故事中持久的部分，而轧空行情并非如此，ZCSH 资产增长才是需要关注的关键指标。

这三周的连续资金流入 streak 正是这一指标的持续体现。

潜在风险有哪些？

垂直图表的风险、挖矿成本挤压，以及未移动的监管截止日期。

据报道，由于网络算力短暂首次突破 30 GSol/s 且竞争加剧，矿工收入比代币价格在 900 美元以下时低了约 3%。这是一个次级效应，但却是真实存在的。

更重要的是，欧盟的反洗钱框架定于 2027 年 7 月 1 日起限制受监管提供商提供匿名增强型代币。美国上市并不能约束欧洲监管机构。自 7 月以来，我们在每篇关于 Zcash 的文章中都指出了这一日期，192% 的收益并不能降低相关风险。事实上，在较高价位积累的更大仓位，意味着在规则制定时将面临更大的利益攸关。

当前哪些关键价位值得关注？

上方关注 1,375 美元和 1,500 美元，下方 1,200 至 1,250 美元区域将是决定突破是否有效的关键区域。

分析师在价格突破 1,250 美元枢轴点后，将 1,375 美元和 1,500 美元列为焦点，若上升通道保持完整， broader 目标位在 1,539 美元附近。支撑位识别在 1,128 美元附近，随着更高区域的流动性集群被扫清，流动性主要集中在 1,170 美元以下。预测市场将年底前 ZEC 达到 1,400 美元的概率设定为 67% 左右。