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ZEC Grayscale Zcash ETF recorded a net inflow of US$46.6 million, ZEC approached US$1600: Can it hit US$2000?
On September 17, Grayscale's Zcash ETF (code: ZCSH) recorded a net inflow of US$46.6 million, which is the second largest single-day gold draw since the fund began trading on NYSE Arca on August 25. Since the beginning of this week, the fund has added approximately US$60.5 million in funds, continuing its rapid accumulation in less than a month after its listing. As early as September 8, Grayscale had reported total assets of more than US$500 million, with cumulative net inflows after launch exceeding US$70 million, in addition to a separate investment of US$100 million by DCG International Investments.
As demand increases, the price of ZEC also increases. On September 19, the privacy coin traded at close to $1550. It had previously hit a 24-hour high of more than $1580, with an increase of about 178% in the past month.
ZCSH demand accelerates in less than a month after launch
Zcash ETF began trading on NYSE Arca on August 25 after Grayscale converted its long-running Zcash Trust into an exchange-traded product. Its prospectus establishes a simple structure in which the fund holds ZEC and aims to reflect the value of the position after deducting fees.
Grayscale is preparing for a 3-to-1 stock split. Investors who hold ZCSH at the market close on September 28 will receive two additional shares for every share they hold, and the split adjusted trading will begin on September 30.
基金的扩张与 ZEC 的其他需求来源同步发展。Kamino 最近推出了基于 ZEC 的借贷服务，允许持有者在 Solana 网络上使用 ZEC 作为抵押品借入 USDC。
ZEC 较 6 月低点上涨超过 500%
在 6 月的抛售期间，Zcash 的交易价格曾接近 258 美元，随后几天内反弹至 470 美元附近。这次早期复苏带来了从低点计算 84% 的涨幅，当时交易者围绕 Ironwood 网络升级重新调整仓位。
8 月份涨势再次加速。随着 Grayscale 加快 ETF 注册进程以及机构对 Zcash 挖矿的兴趣增加，ZEC 突破了 788 美元。目前 ZEC 价格约为 1550 美元，较 6 月的低点 258 美元上涨了约 500%。其流通市值已攀升至 260 亿美元以上，目前约有 1687 万枚 ZEC 在流通。
价格的快速上涨也提高了维持动能的成本。ZEC 在大约三个月内从 500 美元以下涨至 1500 美元以上，如果 ETF 资金流放缓或杠杆头寸平仓，近期买入者将面临更大的百分比波动风险。
ZEC 能触及 2000 美元吗？
从 1550 美元涨至 2000 美元需要再上涨约 29%，这远小于 ZEC 自 6 月以来已经实现的涨幅。当前的直接阻力位位于 1580 美元至 1600 美元区间。如果能以持续的现货成交量有效突破该区间，ZEC 将重新进入当前周期的价格发现阶段，接下来明显的心理关口将是 1750 美元和 1800 美元，随后才是 2000 美元。
按目前的流通供应量计算，2000 美元的 ZEC 价格意味着市值将达到约 337 亿美元。如果授权参与者需要更多 ZEC 来创建新的基金份额，持续的 ZCSH 份额创造将为现货市场增添另一股需求力量。
目前的下行支撑位大约在 1400 美元。守住这一区域将保持 9 月突破的有效性，而一旦失守 1400 美元，在经历自 6 月以来超过 500% 的涨幅后，可能会暴露出 1250 美元至 1300 美元的下跌空间。
若能持续突破 1600 美元，并保持 ETF 资金流入和强劲的现货成交量，2000 美元的目标就在当前市场价格约 29% 的范围内。然而，基金资金流的逆转或跌破 1400 美元都将削弱这一看涨格局，使得下一次尝试变得更加困难。
