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BTC 罗伯特·清崎声称“历史上最大的崩盘”已启动：比特币能否抵御风暴？
自9月15日以来，知名财经作家罗伯特·清崎（Robert Kiyosaki）宣称，“历史上最严重的金融崩盘”实际上已经拉开序幕。据他分析，这场动荡始于欧洲和日本市场，随后正逐渐向全球其他市场蔓延。在这一宏观背景下，比特币被视为少数能够经受住市场风暴考验的资产之一。尽管部分债券指标佐证了他的担忧，但整体数据尚未显示出普遍性的恐慌情绪。
核心要点速览
- 崩盘起点： 9月15日，清崎指出此次崩盘始于欧洲和日本市场。
- 日本国债收益率创新高： 9月初，日本10年期国债收益率达到3%，创下自1996年以来的首次新高。
- 全球债务压力： 国际货币基金组织（IMF）预测，到2029年全球公共债务占GDP比重将达到100%。
- 比特币走势： 9月20日，比特币在经历周度低点后出现反弹，交易价格约为80,300美元。
日本市场数据为清崎的观点提供佐证
Back in July, Kiyosaki listed four assets that could perform solidly in the next crisis. On September 15th, he further asserted that the collapse that had been warned of for years was finally beginning to occur. He listed several key drivers, including "artificial intelligence mania", the war situation in the Iranian region, high global debt and the mass retirement of baby boomers.
In terms of the bond market, some data are indeed difficult to ignore. On September 1, Japan's 10-year bond yield rose to 3%, the highest level since 1996. Reuters analysis pointed out that this increase reflects market concerns about inflation, public finances and Japan's monetary policy adjustments. Meanwhile, cryptocurrency media Bitcoin.com News reported in the same week that borrowing costs in Germany, France and the United Kingdom have also reached decade-high.
The technology sector is also under pressure. Recently, five economists from the European Central Bank (ECB) believe that there may be a correction in valuations of technology stocks. However, this adjustment is not yet enough to be called a full-blown collapse.
The Bitcoin market shows no signs of panic
If a historic crash is indeed underway, the market should show more warning signs. However, the current trading price of Bitcoin is stable at around $80,300. After hitting a weekly low on September 16, Bitcoin has recovered some of its lost ground. This trend contrasts sharply with the widespread collapse scenario.
Although investors became cautious as bond yields rose, Reuters reported on September 15 that there were no signs of panic selling in the U.S. stock market at that time. Kiyosaki continues to be bullish on gold, silver and Bitcoin, and claims he will buy Bitcoin when the market retracts. However, the rebound in just a few days clearly did not completely refute his warnings: it only showed that the collapse he predicted had not yet had the full devastating impact it described.
The global debt problem is still closely watched
A core basis for Kiyosaki's argument is the debt problem. In this regard, IMF data clearly reveals a tension. According to its Fiscal Monitoring Report released in April 2026, global public debt will account for nearly 94% of GDP in 2025 and may reach 100% in 2029.
However, the IMF did not predict a sudden market collapse. Its analysis places more emphasis on growing budget pressures, high interest payments and increasing bond market vulnerability. So the current question is not so much the existence of risks as whether these risks will translate into a real market meltdown. As of now, Kiyosaki's warnings are based on real economic tensions, but the most extreme scenarios he paints still need to be verified by time.
