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BTC Bitcoin enters fourth quarter: The Federal Reserve, bond yields and key prices determine the trend
After a strong rebound in the third quarter, Bitcoin ushered in the last quarter of the year. However, analysts warned that the market should not expect another straight rise. They pointed out that there are several key factors that could affect the direction of Bitcoin and the overall market over the next three months.
These factors include the Federal Reserve's policy movements, treasury bond market liquidity, exchange-traded fund flows (ETFs) flows, geopolitical conditions, and whether Bitcoin can break the key resistance level of $87,500-which remains the most significant obstacle on its way forward.
The market in the third quarter is difficult to easily replicate
Although Bitcoin once again dropped below US$58,000 in the early third quarter, setting its lowest price in a year and a half, it performed more positively in the following three months. Cryptocurrency rebounded quickly and broke through the $80,000 mark in mid-August. The rally continued and ended the quarter with a gain of as much as 43%.
Nexo Dispatch analyst Iliya Kalchev described this period as a "recovery phase" and a "breakthrough milestone." He believes that the most important catalyst comes from the bond market: the U.S. Treasury Department expanded the scale of long-term Treasury bond repurchase operations in August.
受此影响，比特币资产确实在8月19日跳涨7%，并在随后几天内飙升超过20%。现货比特币ETF资金流向随即转为正向，甚至在全年累计基础上也翻正。Kalchev补充道，相对低迷的永续合约资金费率表明，此次上涨更多是由现货需求驱动，而非过度杠杆所致。
尽管如此，分析师提醒投资者不要假设第四季度会简单地延续第三季度的节奏。虽然在过去15年中，有9个年份的第四季度比特币收盘价高于年初，但中位数涨幅仅为9%左右。而平均涨幅被2013年和2017年等轰动性年份所扭曲，因此不具备代表性。
WhiteBIT首席营销官Alex Kozenko发出了类似警告：“当前的市场结构已发生变化：机构参与度显著提升，通过合规投资产品流入的资金已成为影响市场动态的新力量。在未来三个月，我将主要关注流动性、机构活动以及整体宏观经济环境。”
美联储政策与87,500美元的关键意义
尽管周五发布的就业数据不及预期导致整体市场状况略有变化，Bitget Wallet的研究分析师Lacie Zhang仍认为，美联储将在10月28日加息25个基点。若9月加息（这是三年来的首次加息）已使目标利率区间达到某一水平，此次加息后目标区间将调整为4.00%-4.25%。
Kalchev also emphasized that the Federal Reserve was the biggest variable in the fourth quarter. Although the latest core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) data is more moderate, and the jobs report relieved some of the pressure for further tightening, geopolitical developments could further complicate the outlook, especially if energy prices continue to drive inflation higher.
Zhang pointed out that US$87,500 remains the most critical resistance level for Bitcoin as it moves towards a broader recovery. Once this level is exceeded, it may increase the possibility of short covering (forcing short). Instead, she identified $82,000 -82,500 as the main support area; a break below this range could accelerate the price downward below $80,000.
