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SOL Bitcoin's correction risk intensifies on Monday: Warning signals after four reversals
Summary: BTC, ETH and SOL all trigger four-hour TD Sequential sell signals. Bitcoin traded around $85,300 after rising on Sunday, while the past four Sundays 'movements reversed on Monday. Historical data shows that Bitcoin's price fell between 1.74% and 4.37% after the last four TD Sequential sell signals; Ethereum's first two signals fell by 5.40% and 3.31% respectively, while Solana's three signals resulted in a pullback of up to 5.76%.
Weekend Trading Volume Shrinkage and Monday Reverse Pattern
Bitcoin faced two short-term warning signals when entering Monday's trading session after experiencing another round of weekend gains and stabilizing above $85,000. Recent Sunday markets have repeatedly reversed the next day, and four-hour technical indicators for major cryptocurrencies currently show sell signals.
analyst Ali Charts pointed out this pattern on October 4. Bitcoin was trading at close to $85,300 at the time, hitting a high of about $85,500 on Sunday. Ethereum is trading at about $2,700, while Solana remains above $121, all three assets in the level zone where technology exhaustion signals are emerging.
It should be emphasized that this pattern does not determine that prices will inevitably fall on Monday. However, September trading data showed a pattern that lasted for four weeks: every Sunday's move reversed on Monday. Specifically:
- September 6:比特币周日上涨约 0.7%，随后周一下跌约 1.5%。
- 一周后（9 月 13 日左右）：BTC 周日下跌 0.6%，周一反弹上涨约 1.7%。
- 9 月 20 日：比特币小幅下滑约 0.1%，次日大幅上涨 6.7%。
- 9 月 27 日：BTC 月末收盘几乎持平，周一下跌约 1.1%。
这四次观察构成了一个有限的样本集，但每次均产生了相同的方向性反转。因此，最新的周日上涨使得周一交易再次聚焦于这一近期序列。市场结构也提供了重要的背景信息。Kaiko 的研究发现，在其 2024 年的研究中，周末交易量仅占总比特币交易量的 16%。随着机构参与度和现货 ETF 活动的扩大，交易活动日益集中在工作日。结果，较薄的周末流动性可能导致周日的价格变动无法完全代表更深度的工作日参与回归时的状况。因此，周一将成为测试最新周末涨势能否在这一过渡期存活的试金石。
BTC、ETH 和 SOL 触发四小时 TD Sequential 卖出信号
日历模式的背后，是 BTC、ETH 和 SOL 均触发的四小时级别 TD Sequential 卖出信号。Ali Charts 指出比特币的信号出现在 85,312 美元附近。根据分析师图表，此前四个类似的比特币信号出现后，分别伴随着 1.74%、4.37%、3.11% 和 1.96% 的下跌。
Ethereum showed the same signal around $2,702. Its first two similar signals were followed by adjustments of 5.40% and 3.31% respectively. Similarly, Solana recorded the signal around $121.60, with three previous settings leading to declines of 2.44%, 5.76%, and 5.30%, respectively.
The TD Sequential indicator identifies possible trend failures by comparing consecutive closing prices with prices before four K-lines. A sell signal signals excessive stretching of kinetic energy, but does not guarantee an inevitable reversal. Monday's trading will provide the next observable test results. After experiencing strong performances on Sunday, BTC, ETH and SOL all entered the weekday trading session, and the recent reversal history and technical signals are highly consistent within the latest observation trading window.
