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BTC Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck: If Bitcoin's market value reaches half that of gold, its price could reach US$500,000.
In a recent interview with Bitcoin Magazine, Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, proposed a bold medium-term Bitcoin price outlook. According to Siegel, the agency uses half of the total market value of gold as a reference when setting potential target prices for Bitcoin. At current valuation levels, this benchmark suggests that the potential price of Bitcoin is about $500,000 per coin. However, Siegel emphasized that achieving this milestone could occur during the current market cycle or could be delayed until the next cycle.
The bitcoin-to-gold ratio attracts attention
Siegel specifically mentioned the "bitcoin-to-gold ratio" indicator, which compares the value of the two by calculating how many ounces of gold a bitcoin can buy. This ratio provides a comparative framework for assessing Bitcoin's potential upside relative to mature stored value assets such as gold.
Previously, the ratio hit a high of around 40, but fell back to the 16 - 17 range during the summer. Siegel believes that this decline means that Bitcoin still has room for further appreciation against gold, and its value may even double without breaking historical valuation records. However, he also warned that $500,000 is not a short-term forecast target, but a hypothetical target that can only be achieved if the market value of Bitcoin grows to roughly half the market value of gold.
Terminology:
VanEck is a global investment management company that offers a wide range of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), mutual funds and other financial products, and plays an active role in the digital asset space.
Institutional demand rebounded significantly
Siegel's view is consistent with the significant rebound in institutional interest. In the third quarter, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded inflows of US$6.34 billion, while the sector experienced outflows of approximately US$5 billion in the previous quarter. During the same period, Bitcoin prices rose nearly 43%. Coinpaper's data shows that "real money" from institutions and retailers has returned to the market in huge amounts.
Siegel emphasized that the strong inflows of cash bitcoin ETFs demonstrate the scale of "real money" entering the market, which has boosted the confidence of large investors.
Despite positive momentum, risks remain
Despite optimistic medium-term goals, Segal also acknowledged that Bitcoin investors still face persistent risks. He pointed out that Bitcoin's volatility is still about three times that of gold, so investors need to allocate different weights to each asset. In addition, Siegel also pointed out that quantum computing may be a long-term technical threat to Bitcoin's cybersecurity, but clarified that this does not currently constitute a sufficient reason to sell Bitcoin.
As institutional adoption continues to rise, Siegel emphasizes that volatility and evolving technical risk must be managed as part of a balanced investment strategy.
Looking to the future
Looking to the future, Siegel pointed out that before a six-digit valuation becomes a topic of discussion, Bitcoin must break through the multiple-test resistance level of $87,000 and then $90,000. For short-term traders and investors, these key thresholds are a monitoring focus as Bitcoin continues its efforts to push into new price areas.
