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BTC VanEck研究主管：比特币中期目标看至50万美元
VanEck数字资产研究负责人Matthew Sigel在最近接受《Bitcoin Magazine》采访时指出，该公司将黄金市值的一半作为比特币的中期“北极星”指标。按当前估值计算，这意味着比特币价格可能达到约50万美元。Sigel表示，这一水平有望在本轮周期或下一轮周期内实现。
比特币对黄金汇率仍有翻倍空间
Sigel的核心观点在于比特币与黄金的比率，该指标衡量一枚比特币可以兑换多少盎司的黄金。夏季期间，该比率从此前约40的水平回落至16–17左右。Sigel认为，这表明即使不假设出现前所未有的相对估值，比特币对黄金的价格仍有大约翻倍的潜力。
因此，50万美元的目标价不应被解读为短期预测，而是代表比特币总市值最终达到黄金市值一半时可能对应的价格水平。
ETF需求支撑市场复苏
VanEck的这一论点也建立在机构需求改善的基础之上。美国现货比特币ETF在第三季度吸引了约63.4亿美元的资金流入，创下2026年最强季度表现，而第二季度则经历了约50亿美元的净流出。同期，比特币价格上涨了近43%。相关ETF数据支持了Sigel的观点，即“真实资金”已重新回归市场。
风险提示与短期技术面
However, market recovery is not without risks. Sigel acknowledged that Bitcoin's volatility is still about three times that of gold, which means the weights of the two assets in the portfolio should not be exactly the same. He also pointed out the long-term technical risks posed by quantum computing, but he did not believe this was the reason to sell Bitcoin at the moment.
In the short term, key technical resistance levels are more important. Bitcoin still needs to break through the recurring resistance level of $87,000, followed by the $90,000 mark before the six-digit target becomes practical.
