The inflation rate in the United States has risen to 3.7%. The core inflation rate is higher than ex

The U.S. consumer price index for September increased by 3.7% year-on-year. The core data and market conditions before the Fed’s decision-making process played a significant role in this outcome.

The U.S. consumer price index (CPI) for September rose by 3.7% year-on-year, exceeding economists’ expectations of 3.6%. The core inflation rate, excluding energy and food items, increased by 2.6% year-on-year, also higher than the expected 2.5%. For the cryptocurrency market, this is one of the last inflation-related reports before the Fed makes its interest rate decisions on October 28th. After the release of these figures, the price of Bitcoin remained relatively stable at around $82,880, with little change compared to before the announcement.

What will be more important in the next two weeks is not the overall inflation rate of 3.7%, but the difference between the overall inflation rate and the core inflation rate. The difference between the two is 1.1 percentage points, which is quite significant. Anyone who is concerned about the Fed’s actions on October 28th should pay attention to the smaller of these two figures, namely the core inflation rate.

Detailed data on the U.S. consumer price index for September is available here.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced the consumer price index for September on Wednesday at noon, Eastern Time. The following four indicators are of particular interest:

• Overall inflation rate (year-on-year): 3.7%, higher than the consensus forecast of 3.6%.
• Overall inflation rate (quarter-on-quarter): It increased by 0.6% after seasonal adjustments, meeting expectations.
• Core inflation rate (year-on-year): 2.6%, higher than the expected 2.5%.
• Core inflation rate (quarter-on-quarter): It increased by 0.3%.

The Consumer Price Index published by the Department of Labor measures the costs incurred by American households for a fixed basket of goods and services. While the Federal Reserve prefers to use the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE) to achieve its 2% target, the CPI remains the most important inflation indicator in financial markets.

Why central banks focus on core inflation at 2.6%?

Core inflation excludes energy and food prices. This is because monetary policy has limited control over these categories: oil prices are influenced by conflicts, production quotas, and weather conditions, rather than being directly determined by policy interest rates. If central banks raise interest rates due to energy shocks, they will only slow down economic activity, without addressing the root causes of the problem. Therefore, core inflation is considered a better measure of the price pressures that monetary policy can actually affect.

At 2.6%, core inflation is closer to the Federal Reserve’s target compared to overall inflation. Previously, this figure was 3.0% in the October 1 report, indicating that the downward trend continues. Additionally, this figure is 0.1 percentage points higher than expected, and this 0.1 percentage point is what the FOMC discusses during its meetings.

What does this 0.1 percentage point really mean?

A single monthly figure that exceeds expectations doesn’t change monetary policy, but three consecutive months of such figures could have an impact. The Federal Reserve focuses on trends over several months, as the index is adjusted seasonally each month, and individual components like airfare or used cars can fluctuate significantly. For investors, this means that such figures rarely change the situation immediately; what changes is the probability distribution after the next meeting.

汽油价格上涨9.1%：总体数据背后的能源冲击

9月份汽油价格上涨了9.1%，占总体通胀率全部涨幅的一半左右。整个能源指数上涨了5.2%。背后是美国与伊朗之间冲突升级推高了油价。这一来源解释了3.7%与2.6%之间巨大差距的原因。源于地缘政治的价格飙升通过加油站直接进入总体通胀率，但不影响核心通胀率。只有当货运公司、航空公司和制造商将更高的能源成本计入自身价格时，这种影响才会迁移至核心通胀率。这一过渡需要数月时间，是否会发生取决于油价高位维持多久。

比特币报价82,880美元：过去七天的价格区间

比特币目前尚未对该数据做出突破反应。价格位于约82,880美元，较24小时前下跌约0.5%，较一周前下跌约1%。一个月内上涨6.6%。距离2025年10月6日创下的126,080美元的历史高点仍差34.3%。

对于接下来几天重要的价位，我们分析了过去七天每小时间隔的169个测量点的数据。结果如下：

• 周低点：80,652美元（10月8日触及）。
• 周高点：84,154美元（10月12日触及）。
• 区间宽度：3,502美元，即4.3%。

The current price is located in the upper half of this range, but still below the highest point. As long as Bitcoin remains between these two levels, the inflation data has been priced, but no new direction has been established. If the closing price drops below $80,652, it would be the first signal that market expectations for the Fed’s meeting results differ from previous ones. If the price breaks through $84,154, it would be a negative signal.

Ethereum’s trend is also calm, with trading prices around $2,482, a decrease of 0.8% compared to yesterday. Large-scale crypto assets respond relatively gently to such data, which differs from some inflation readings in recent years.

The Fed’s target range is 3.75% to 4.00%. Current situation as of October 28th:

German media often mentions one point repeatedly. It should be noted that the Fed is not reducing interest rates at present; instead, it is raising them. According to the Fed’s open market operations, the committee raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00% on September 17, 2026. There have been no rate cuts since 2026.

The next meeting is scheduled for October 27th and 28th, and the decision will be announced the following day. There is also one final meeting this year, scheduled for December 8th and 9th. Therefore, today’s inflation data represents the last major release before the decision-making process in October.

Raising interest rates rather than lowering them: Implications for the crypto market

The increase in policy interest rates affects Bitcoin through two mechanisms. First, there’s the effect of comparison: if the yield on short-term government bonds and overnight deposits is 4%, then interest-free investments are necessary to make up for this loss. The second mechanism involves financing channels: higher interest rates make borrowing more expensive, and the significant short-term fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market are largely due to leveraged positions.

Therefore, an increase in interest rates initially acts as a disadvantageous factor for crypto assets, while a decrease serves as an advantage. This explains why the market closely monitors every inflation-related data point. Despite growth in September, Bitcoin has still increased by more than a month this year, indicating that relationships aren’t based on automatic mechanisms, but rather describe directions rather than formulas.

Leverage and liquidation: How macro events affect positions

Liquidation occurs when the collateral backing a leveraged position isn’t sufficient to cover the losses. Subsequently, exchanges may force liquidations. This happens frequently on days when macro data is released, as price movements can exceed normal hours within minutes.

Anyone using leverage will check the difference between entry and closing prices before these dates. This data is displayed in each exchange’s position overview. With a 10x leverage, a 10% reversal in positions is enough to trigger liquidation. Last week, the range was 4.3%, and reactions to Federal Reserve decisions might exceed this range. For details on which German providers offer stop-loss orders, partial liquidations, and margin warnings, along with their fees, please refer to our list of top cryptocurrency brokers.

Holding period and German taxation: The framework remains unchanged

Inflation data in the United States does not affect German tax regulations. In Germany, profits from selling encrypted assets are exempt from taxation after being held for more than one year; if sold within a year, it is considered a private transaction and taxed at the individual income tax rate. Therefore, it’s important to ensure that your response to macroeconomic news does not inadvertently change the duration of your personal holding period.

If you sell in October and buy back in November, the one-year holding period for the new position will start anew. For those approaching a significant date, the tax implications could outweigh the potential price fluctuations they might avoid by selling their positions. Professional tools can track the holding period of each purchase and generate reports for tax purposes.

Additional information for European investors

As far as the purchase itself is concerned, since the implementation of MiCA regulations, a unified framework has been applied across the EU. Providers must be authorized to sell encrypted assets to retail customers, and their customer funds must be kept separate from their own assets. For providers without EU authorization, there is no such protection, regardless of the fee structure. Whether a trading platform is authorized can be checked in the registers of the relevant regulatory authorities.

Our assessment: The core weight exceeds the overall data

From the perspective of news editors, this announcement has less of an impact on the cryptocurrency market than 3.7% suggests. There are three pieces of evidence supporting this view: half of the growth came from a 9.1% increase in gasoline prices, while interest rate policies had no direct effect on it; the core inflation rate was 2.6%, lower than last month; Bitcoin absorbed this data, without breaking through the weekly range of $80,652 to $84,154.

The objection lies in that 0.1 percentage point difference: both readings are higher than expected, and the Federal Reserve chose to raise interest rates rather than cut them in September. If oil prices remain at this level, the surge in energy costs will be passed on to core inflation through transportation and manufacturing costs. The October readings released on November 12th will become more important as a benchmark. This is an assessment, not investment advice: crypto assets could lose all their value entirely.

U.S. inflation and Bitcoin: It will be until October 28th that core inflation rates become critical.

September’s readings did not provide any reason for the Federal Reserve to change its course, nor did they offer any new directions for the crypto market. Now, the key lies in three steps:

1. Pay attention to prices: Weekly low at $80,652, weekly high at $84,154. If Bitcoin exits this range after the Fed meeting, market sentiment will shift. Current prices and inflows can be seen in the overview of top cryptocurrency exchanges.
2. Review leverage levels before October 28th: The difference between the exchange rate and the actual price is shown in the exchange position overview. If you need more cushioning, reduce your positions or set stop losses. Details on relevant tools available from top cryptocurrency brokers can be found here.
3. Check your holding periods: Before selling due to macro reasons, it’s worth looking at the purchase dates. If a anniversary is approaching, the tax benefits usually outweigh the risk of volatility. Crypto tax tools can track the holding period of each purchase.

（截至2026年10月14日。本文不构成投资建议。价格和费用结构会发生变化；购买前请与提供商核实条款。）