比特币跌破82,000美元，以太坊跌破2,500美元：81,000美元关口能否守住？

The crypto market continues to decline, but the underlying drivers have changed.

The crypto market is still falling, but the factors driving this trend have shifted. As of Wednesday afternoon, the total value of all crypto assets was $2.76 trillion, a decrease of 4.50% compared to the previous 24 hours. Bitcoin traded at $81,712 after reaching a daily high of $84,025. Ethereum, meanwhile, traded at $2,420 after hitting a high of $2,525. The trigger for this decline was the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released in September: the figures were higher than expected, as announced at 2:30 PM German time on Wednesday.

What distinguished this day from previous ones was the change in future prospects. On October 12th and 13th, leverage was the main driver of price movements, with forced liquidations in the futures market accelerating each decline. Currently, most of these borrowed funds have withdrawn from the market, and the volume of liquidations has reduced to less than one-third of previous levels. What’s currently suppressing the market is a clash between shifts in interest rate expectations and stabilizing demand.

In just 24 hours, the market value has decreased by 4.50%.

This decline is widespread. Out of the 25 largest crypto assets, 20 showed poor performance, with 17 of them declining. The median daily decline for these 20 assets was 3.37%.

There are five assets whose performance exceeds that of Bitcoin, and three of these assets even experienced gains against the trend: Monero increased by 3.90%, Tron increased by 1.61%, and LEO Token increased by 1.56%. On the other hand, Canton fell by 7.49%, Rain fell by 7.42%, Chainlink fell by 5.65%, and Stellar fell by 4.97%. Under the overall market conditions, the positive performance of Monero and Tron is a typical example of assets with independent demand patterns, which are less dependent on interest rate issues.

Bitcoin’s dominance rose to 59.4%

When altcoins suffered greater losses than Bitcoin, Bitcoin’s share of the total market value increased. Currently, this proportion has reached 59.4%. This is a typical pattern of investors reducing risk rather than rotating their holdings: there is less rotation, and the overall amount of holdings has also decreased. In the past seven days, 18 out of 20 assets have fallen, with Rain experiencing the most significant decline, at 13.03%.

Coinglass data shows that the 24-hour settlement volume ranged from $140 million to $154 million

Data from the futures market indicates differences from previous days. Depending on the snapshot of Coingglass data, the statistics vary: for the 24 hours up to Wednesday morning, reports indicated that forced liquidations amounted to $154.32 million, while data from a later window showed that the total settlement volume involving 60,290 accounts was $140 million. Both figures are lower than the figures from October 13th, when $488.61 million in positions were liquidated within 24 hours.

关键在于比率的方向，它已经发生了转变。在10月13日，83.2%的清算金额集中在多头（买入）一侧。而在周三的两个快照中，多空分布接近均衡：一次是空头8,038万美元对比多头7,393万美元，另一次是多头8,116万美元对比空头5,884万美元。一个同时清算大量空头和多头的市场，意味着其单边杠杆负担已经消失。这正是将今日行情与上周区分开来的关键所在。

比特币领涨清算名单，以太坊紧随其后

按单个资产细分，比特币受到的冲击最大，清算额达3,250万美元，其次是以太坊的2,636万美元。引人注目的是哪一方遭受了损失。空头头寸占比特币清算额的78.3%，占以太坊清算额的59.8%。换言之，在价格报告发布之前，主要是押注价格下跌的赌注亏损了。单笔最大的强制平仓是一笔价值395万美元的Binance交易所比特币空头头寸。

抵押品断裂：1.5432亿美元清算中，8,038万美元命中做空头寸

清算潮如何传导至价格

其机制比听起来更简单，这也解释了为何会出现如此快速的行情。任何使用杠杆的用户都需向交易所缴纳抵押品（保证金）。如果价格下跌，缓冲垫就会消融。一旦跌破设定阈值，交易所会自动平仓并在市场上卖出底层资产，无需征得客户同意。

这些抛售行为进一步压低价格，从而击穿下一个缓冲垫。结果是引发连锁反应，在几分钟内完成，而在平静期完全不可见。只有当某一价格区间的杠杆头寸被耗尽时，这种反应才会停止。因此，清算规模的大小并不能说明硬币的公允价值，但能很好地反映此前市场中存在多少借入资金。

对于方向而言，这意味着两点。一波自我出清的清算浪潮会在短期内消除市场的卖压，因为脆弱的头寸已经消失。这就是本周三的情况：下跌正在运行，但没有前几天的加速器。但是，如果缺乏新的需求，也就缺少了将价格推回上方的对手盘。

需求成为关键：美国现货ETF近期信号转好

这就回到了需求问题。过去两年，需求主要来自一个方向：美国的交易所交易基金（ETF）。这也是最近信号发生翻转的地方，且翻转为正向。

10月13日美国比特币ETF净流入1.756亿美元

根据Farside Investors的每日数据，美国现货比特币ETF在10月13日录得1.756亿美元的净流入，此前10月12日为6,540万美元的净流出。最大的单一贡献来自FBTC基金，达1.031亿美元，其次是IBIT基金的6,590万美元。目前尚无10月14日的每日数据。

This marked a real turning point during the week from October 5th to 9th. During that period, a total of approximately $681 million was withdrawn from those funds. This included an additional $487 million on October 7th, and $244.1 million on October 8th. Those who used the excuse of “lack of fund demand” to explain last week’s decline must withdraw this explanation in order to cope with the current situation.

Why does this directly affect prices? These ETFs hold actual Bitcoin. If investors redeem their shares, the issuers must sell Bitcoin to fulfill those redemptions. Thus, inflows create actual buy orders, while outflows create actual sell orders. These funds aren’t just marginal players; they’re one of the main sources of daily demand.

September CPI data was higher than expected

. The remaining explanation lies in the release of the data itself. Since Wednesday noon, this has become not just an expectation, but a fact. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that consumer prices increased by 0.6% month-on-month in September, and by 3.7% year-on-year (compared to 3.4% in August). Core inflation, excluding energy and food items, rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year; previous expectations were 0.2% and 2.5%, respectively. About half of this monthly increase came from energy, with gasoline prices rising by 9.1%. These figures can be found in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ press release.

For the crypto market, core inflation is more important than overall inflation, as it measures price pressures after taking out volatile items. A higher-than-expected core inflation rate can change market expectations regarding central bank policies. The Fed’s interest rate decision is scheduled to take place on October 27th and 28th.

这种联系是间接但可靠的：更高的预期利率使生息投资更具吸引力，并使借贷成本更高。加密资产不支付利息，因此它们对此类变化的反应通常比股市更强烈。没有交易所倒闭，没有监管机构禁止任何东西，也没有大型项目失败。触发点位于加密行业之外。

与10月8日暴跌的对比

回顾历史有助于理清规模。在10月8日和9日，加密市场24小时内的清算总额达到11.91亿美元，主要集中在多头侧。当时比特币跌至81,000美元以下，当天的英文市场报道是我们网站上阅读最多的文章。

以此为基准，尽管价格水平相似，但当前的1.4亿至1.54亿美元显然是较小的波动。这符合第三波、更平缓的行情特征：大部分借入资金已在六天前被挤出市场，其余部分在10月12日和13日被清除，因此相同的价格变动今天几乎不会触发强制平仓。自那以后发生变化的是需求侧，而且变化对市场有利。

我们的评估：利率故事，而非杠杆意外

From the perspective of the news editorial department, this day represents a reduction in risk, rather than a panic-driven sell-off. The reasons for this are different from those of previous days. There are three verifiable points that support this view. First, the volume of liquidations was between $140 million and $154 million. The short-selling ratio was close to equilibrium, which is quite different from the situation during the leveraged crisis. Additionally, this figure is less than one-third of the previous day’s level. Second, the spread between gains and losses was evenly distributed across all assets. Seventeen out of twenty major assets declined, with a median decline of 3.37%. This indicates a uniform decline across all sectors, rather than a collapse of just one sector. Third, capital flows returned to positive territory for the first time on October 13th.

In contrast, calendar factors played a role. Due to higher-than-expected core inflation rates, markets entered a period of uncertainty lasting two weeks, until the interest rate decision on October 28th. During this time, markets became more sensitive to any further data releases. Daily capital inflows alone cannot indicate a trend reversal; whether this will lead to a trend reversal will be determined by subsequent daily data. This assessment takes various factors into consideration, but it does not constitute a trading recommendation. Cryptocurrencies could face full losses at any time.

The support and resistance levels for Bitcoin and Ethereum

are not predictions, but rather references based on past 24 hours and past week’s trading data.

Bitcoin

比特币交易价格为81,712美元。向上看，第一个标记是83,554美元（数据发布前周三早间的价格），其上是日内高点84,025美元。向下看，81,000美元附近的区域是下一个支撑位，10月8日的行情在此终结。过去七天的跌幅仅为1.28%，因此周线图远比日线图受损轻微。

以太坊

以太坊失守2,500美元的整数关口，交易于2,420美元。向上看，2,500美元是第一道障碍，其上是日内高点2,525美元。周线跌幅为4.50%，是比特币的三倍多。这符合期货市场上的杠杆分布：相对于市场规模，以太坊上存在的借入资金更多。

杠杆、持有期与德国托管

对于德国投资者来说，在这样的日子里，有三个与价格方向无关的实际问题值得关注。

购买途径与MiCA合规

随着欧洲加密法规MiCA全面生效，面向欧盟客户的提供商需要获得授权。任何人购买前都可以检查其使用的交易所是否持有欧盟授权，以及通过哪家公司结算。高波动性的日子也能展示平台的稳健性：订单执行缓慢和价格偏差是最先显现的问题。

持有期与亏损抵扣

In Germany, as long as the sale is made from private assets, the proceeds from selling encrypted assets are tax-free after being held for one year. If sold within one year, it is taxed as a regular private disposal transaction. If sold during a downward trend, any losses incurred can only be used to offset similar gains. Unlike buying physical assets, this one-year limit does not apply to futures and CFDs; in these instruments, taxes are deducted from the first transaction onwards.

Leverage and custody

The 60,290清算账户 involved on that day serves as evidence against such high-leverage practices: it’s not the price direction that determines losses, but rather how close the account is to the清算阈值. This fact about short positions indicates that this situation applies in both directions. The issue of custody is separate. Coins stored at exchanges are under the control of providers, whereas coins held in self-custody are not. For information on which devices are suitable for self-custody and their differences, please refer to the comparison of hardware wallets.

Cryptocurrency sales: Leverage has been cleared, demand determines direction

The market is moving towards the interest rate decision scheduled for October 28th. Until then, the bottleneck lies in the demand from funds, not in the futures market. It makes sense to take three steps now:

1. Check your purchasing options: Confirm whether your exchange has EU MiCA authorization, and learn about the actual fees applicable during periods of high volatility. For an overview of EU-authorized providers, please refer to the list of regulated cryptocurrency exchanges.
2. Measure leverage based on the distance from the threshold:如果您使用衍生品，请注意您的头寸将被清算的价格，并将其与当前水平进行比较。哪些平台披露其清算规则，可通过查看加密经纪商比较得知。
3. 记录购买日期和持有期：下跌的日子会产生只能通过记录的收购日期来抵扣的亏损。哪些工具可以自动记录这些内容，请参阅税务软件和投资组合追踪器。

（截至2026年10月14日。本文不构成投资建议。价格和费用结构会发生变化；购买前请与提供商核实条款。）