Bitcoin hovers around $64,684, futures market sentiment heats up, XRP falls 1.8%

Bitcoin traded around US$64,684 amid rising futures sentiment, with XRP down 1.8%

Bitcoin recorded a slight gain on Thursday, in line with the broader cryptocurrency market, while U.S. stocks hovered near historical highs. Ahead of the Federal Reserve's September meeting, investors are closely monitoring macroeconomic trends, and sentiment in risky assets and digital currency markets remains cautious.

Bitcoin price trend and its correlation with the stock market

The world's largest cryptocurrency has gained 0.22% in the past 24 hours, trading at approximately US$64,684. The CoinMarketCap 20 Index, which tracks the performance of top cryptocurrencies, rose 0.33%.

Meanwhile, the S & P 500 remained stable after hitting a record high earlier this week. Markets continue to focus on geopolitical developments, including the possibility of a possible agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Although Bitcoin's daily price rose slightly, its medium-term performance lags far behind the U.S. stock market. Block Scholes research analyst Thahbib Rahman pointed out that Bitcoin has failed to keep up with the stock market's rise in recent months.

"Bitcoin has not enjoyed the same bullish headlines, with prices still stuck near $63,500, well below its all-time high, and the gap with the stock market is even more pronounced. Since the beginning of 2025, the S & P 500 has returned more than 25%, while Bitcoin has fallen nearly 35%, a gap further widening in the recent stock market rally."

However, Rahman emphasized that this disagreement does not indicate a fundamental change in Bitcoin's relationship with traditional risky assets. The 90-day rolling correlation between Bitcoin and the S & P 500 remains high at about 45%. In his view, Bitcoin has gained less in its recent rally, but has fallen more when it falls.

Assets (year-to-date return in 2025)| 90-Day Correlation
Bitcoin-35%| 45%
S & P 500 + 25%| 45%

Futures outlook and derivatives trading activity

Derivatives data shows a shift in market sentiment, indicating that traders are more positive about Bitcoin. For the first time in at least a week, the ratio of long and short positions has turned positive, with long positions accounting for nearly 61% of market orders.

Open interest in Bitcoin futures rose slightly to approximately 759,000 BTC. However, analysts have observed that such increases since June are generally short-lived, with open interest often falling back to around 740,000 BTC.

In the options market, traders buy large quantities of call options with higher strike prices. The $80,000 and $96,000 bitcoin call options are among the most actively traded contracts on Deribit, signaling that the market is optimistic about a potential rebound.

Altcoins perform differently

Altcoins have performed differently over the past day. XRP fell 1.8% to about $1.04, its lowest price since early July. Open interest in XRP futures rose 1.7% to 2.35 billion tokens, indicating that trading activity remains active despite weaker tokens.

Ethereum rose 1.5%, and open interest increased 0.53% to US$26.77 billion.

Solana's leveraged positions fell again, with open futures contracts falling to 61.31 million tokens, compared with a high of more than 76.5 million at the end of June.

Impact and Outlook of Monetary Policy

Analysts at Block Scholes pointed out that expectations of U.S. monetary policy are a key factor in limiting digital asset market activity. Rahman explained that the Federal Reserve's decision not to raise interest rates at a recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting failed to significantly boost the cryptocurrency market, a response he described as a "mild relief."

"The seasonal pattern of cryptocurrency volatility suggests that market activity may remain sluggish until the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting in September due to continued uncertainty over monetary policy and the upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium-Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh has little willingness to provide forward-looking guidance."

Although interest rates remain unchanged, financial markets currently expect the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September to be about 65%. Analysts believe that typical summer trading patterns could lead to market volatility remaining low until the next central bank decision.