Why did Arthur Hayes mention Bitcoin, gold and stocks?

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes interprets the U.S. Treasury Department's increase in holdings of treasury bonds: Bitcoin, gold and the stock market are facing new opportunities

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes issued a remarkable assessment of Bitcoin, gold and the stock market regarding the U.S. Treasury Department's expansion of treasury bond repurchase scale. Hayes believes that suppressed Treasury yields could prompt investors to shift to assets with limited supplies.

Hayes said in a conversation with Ran Neuner on the Crypto Banter program that in the current environment, avoiding long positions in stocks, gold and bitcoin would be a wrong choice. The core of his view is the U.S. Treasury's decision to increase repurchase of long-term bonds.

Why is the U.S. Treasury's Treasury-related measures important?

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has announced that he will expand the repurchase of long-term treasury bonds. The progress comes as the 10-year Treasury yield approaches the closely watched 5% level.

Hayes interpreted the Ministry of Finance's purchase of additional long-term government bonds as "soft yield curve control." Accordingly, the government intervened in the government bond market to relieve yield pressure without formally announcing interest rate targets.

Hayes believes that if Treasury yields are artificially low, investors may withdraw from fixed-income assets and invest in assets with limited supply. In this context, he emphasized that Bitcoin, gold and stocks will stand out.

Why is Hayes optimistic about the rise of Bitcoin and gold?

Hayes linked current progress to debt-management policies during the Yellen era. In his view, the Ministry of Finance's increased repurchase of long-term bonds will help support market liquidity, which may increase demand for bitcoin, gold and stocks.

He compared this view with Japan's long-term policy of yield curve control. Hayes believes that in environments where yields are under pressure, capital tends to flow to higher-yielding or scarce assets.

Therefore, Hayes is optimistic about the rising potential of Bitcoin, gold and stocks. He believes that as long as market liquidity support continues, investor interest in these assets is likely to increase.

Short squeeze effect on Bitcoin's rise

Following the above developments in the government bond market, Bitcoin has exceeded its key moving average near $70,000. While the stock market rose, the altcoins also showed a significant recovery.

However, Hayes did not attribute all of Bitcoin's rise to strong new spot demand. He acknowledged that the liquidation of short positions also played an important role in this.

Still, Hayes believes that the real focus is on the policy shifts behind the market, rather than short-term squeeze. In his view, the government's increased intervention in the national debt market in order to maintain debt sustainability may lead to the formation of a new wave of liquidity in the long run.

How will the Federal Reserve and Trump policies affect markets?

Hayes also incorporated into this analytical framework the fact that the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged and additional liquidity instruments such as repo remained on the agenda.

He believes that the U.S. government's need to control the debt market is moving in the same direction as President Trump's expectations for a strong stock market. This has reinforced expectations that policymakers may take steps more frequently to support asset prices.

According to Hayes, this is not a one-time government bond repurchase operation. If governments repeat such interventions to control financing costs, liquidity into the market may also increase over time.

What is Hayes 'own position?

Hayes said he did not limit this view to the level of market commentary. He revealed that he has maintained a high risk appetite in the past few weeks and has invested heavily in cryptocurrency assets, especially Bitcoin and Ethereum.

In addition, Hayes also said that he has made buy operations in Ethereum, Ethena and Ethery and believes that the current portfolio is close to the "maximum risk" level.

Therefore, Hayes's core message is not a specific Bitcoin price target. The core argument is that if U.S. intervention in debt markets continues, liquidity will continue to flow to scarce assets.

At present, the key question facing the market is: Is this rally just a brief rebound triggered by short squeeze, or is it the starting point of a more sustained liquidity bull market? For some time to come, treasury bond yields, the Ministry of Finance's repurchase actions and the real spot demand flowing to Bitcoin will become decisive factors in judging this issue.