Ethereum outperforms Bitcoin again--the real signal of the ETH/BTC gold fork

Ethereum-to-Bitcoin ratio: Market wrestling behind the golden cross signal

Ethereum is currently showing something more important than simply rising against the US dollar: it is gradually regaining lost ground in Bitcoin. Since hitting a low on June 6, the ETH/BTC ratio has climbed about 25%, and its 50-day moving average has also crossed its 200-day moving average.

This intersection is often called the "golden fork" in technical analysis. For traders concerned about the relative strength of Ethereum, this pattern looks bullish. However, the historical performance of the ETH/BTC Golden Cross is far more complex than its name suggests.

So the latest signals raise a more valuable question than whether Ethereum is about to rise: Is the balance of power between Ethereum and Bitcoin really starting to change?

What is the ETH/BTC ratio?

ETH/BTC measures how much one Ether is worth in Bitcoin. Unlike the ETH/USD price, this ratio largely eliminates the impact of the rise in the entire cryptocurrency market, showing whether Ethereum is strengthening or weakening relative to Bitcoin itself.

When ETH/BTC rises, it means that Ethereum performs better than Bitcoin; when ETH/BTC falls, it means that Bitcoin performs better than Ethereum. This distinction is crucial because both assets can rise sharply against the dollar, but their relative performance can be very different. If Ethereum goes up by 15% and Bitcoin goes up by only 5%, ETH/BTC will go up; conversely, if Ethereum goes up by 5% and Bitcoin goes up by 15%, although both are going up, ETH/BTC will go down. For investors trying to identify fund rotations within the cryptocurrency market, ETH/BTC charts may be more useful than Ethereum's dollar price.

ETH/BTC has risen by about 25% since June

Ethereum's relative recovery has been going on for more than two months. Since reaching bottom on June 6, ETH/BTC has risen by about 25%, reflecting that Ethereum has continued to outperform Bitcoin during this period. This trend was particularly evident in the recent round of broad cryptocurrency rally. Ethereum has been actively involved in this recovery, but its relative performance suggests that investors are not simply buying all major cryptocurrencies in the same proportion, and that more money is flowing to Ethereum, prompting a technical signal that traders are paying close attention to.

What is the ETH/BTC Golden Cross?

The golden cross means that the short-term moving average crosses the long-term moving average upwards. In this case, Ethereum's 50-day moving average against Bitcoin has exceeded its 200-day moving average. The basic interpretation is straightforward: the 50-day moving average represents recent market behavior, while the 200-day moving average reflects long-term trends. When the fast line crosses above the slow line, it means that the near-term momentum is strong enough to change the structure of the long-term chart. From a technical perspective, this is seen as a bullish signal. But the golden cross is not a forecast. The moving average is based on historical prices, which means that the crossing occurs only after the asset has strengthened significantly. It confirms momentum rather than creates momentum.

Historically, the ETH/BTC gold cross has produced completely different results

Historically, Ethereum has recorded astonishing gains after certain gold crosses. For example, after an ETH/BTC gold cross in February 2021, the ratio subsequently climbed by approximately 93%, reaching approximately 0.0824 in May. After a crossover in July 2025, ETH/BTC rose by about 36% in the following four weeks. These examples make the current situation attractive. But there is another side to the historical record: the gold crosses in May and August 2022 failed to bring sustained gains, and ETH/BTC quickly weakened. Even the strong rally after the July 2025 signal finally reversed. The lesson is simple: Jincha can confirm that Ethereum has gained momentum relative to Bitcoin, but cannot determine how long this momentum will last.

Why does Ethereum perform better than Bitcoin?

A single reason is difficult to explain and is more likely to be the result of the combined action of multiple market forces.

Ethereum rebounding from a weak relative position : Ethereum has experienced a long period of performance lagging behind Bitcoin, which has created a huge relative valuation gap. Once sentiment in the broader cryptocurrency market improves, Ethereum has become an obvious candidate for catch-up transactions. As markets shift from defensive positioning to greater risk appetite, traders tend to move along the risk curve. Bitcoin tends to attract the first wave of institutional investors and macro-driven funds, but in the next stage, as investors seek larger potential percentage gains while still wanting to remain among one of the most liquid crypto assets, Ethereum will benefit from it.

The broader cryptocurrency market has recovered : Bitcoin's latest rise has helped improve sentiment across digital assets. This is important for ETH/BTC because Bitcoin's strong performance will not necessarily hurt Ethereum. Historically, decisive Bitcoin rises have sometimes created the conditions for funds to rotate into Ethereum and even smaller crypto assets. The key question is whether Bitcoin can remain strong enough to support market confidence while no longer absorbing most of the new capital. If this happens, ETH/BTC can continue to rise even if Bitcoin itself remains bullish.

Does this mean that the altcoin season is about to begin?

Not necessarily. Ethereum's outperformance of Bitcoin is one of the indicators traders often associate with the early stages of the altcoin rotation, but the strength of Ethereum alone will not establish a comprehensive altcoin season. Ethereum is in a unique position between Bitcoin and the broader altcoin market. It has much greater liquidity and institutional participation than most small crypto assets, which means funds can be rotated from BTC to ETH without requiring investors to bear the same risks as entering low-cap tokens. As a result, ETH/BTC can strengthen before other altcoin markets participate on a large scale. A more convincing altcoin rotation requires broader evidence, including the continued decline in Bitcoin's dominance, the strong performance of multiple large-cap altcoins, and increased liquidity beyond BTC and ETH. Prior to this, Ethereum's strength was more accurately described as a move towards ETH rather than proof of a full-scale altcoin season.

Bitcoin dominance remains important

Bitcoin dominance measures Bitcoin's share of the total market value of cryptocurrencies and remains one of the most useful indicators when evaluating ETH/BTC. If Ethereum continues to outperform Bitcoin and Bitcoin's dominance declines, the case for broader funding rotation will be stronger. If BTC dominance remains high or rises again, Ethereum may find it difficult to maintain its comparative advantage. As a result, the interaction between ETH/BTC and Bitcoin dominance may provide a clearer signal than any single indicator.

Jincha is a lagging indicator

This is the biggest limitation of the current signal. By the time the 50-day moving average crosses the 200-day moving average, most of the price change has already occurred. ETH/BTC has risen about 25% from its June low. Jincha will not tell traders that the change is about to begin, but will tell them that the change is strong and sustained enough to materially change the medium-term momentum. This is still valuable, and trends often continue after technology confirmation. But treating the golden cross as an automatic buy signal ignores the actual way the moving average works.

What factors may drive ETH/BTC higher?

There are several developments that may consolidate Ethereum's relative strength: continued institutional demand for ETH; continued decline in Bitcoin's dominance; and improved activity in the Ethereum network and its Layer 2 ecosystem. The broader macro environment is also important, and investors may be more willing to invest beyond Bitcoin if liquidity conditions remain favorable and risk appetite continues to improve. In this environment, Ethereum is one of the most natural destinations for capital rotation. The strongest bullish scenario will combine all these factors: improved ETH fundamentals, continued institutional demand, declining Bitcoin dominance and overall constructive cryptocurrency markets.

What could break the Ethereum rotation?

Bitcoin remains the main risk. Sharp increases in BTC can sometimes pull money back into the largest cryptocurrencies and reverse ETH/BTC gains. A market-wide sell-off could also hit Ethereum disproportionately, as ETH is generally seen as an asset with a higher beta than Bitcoin. There is also a possibility that most of the current gains are just a rebound after a long period of weakness in Ethereum. If so, ETH/BTC may stabilize once the valuation gap narrows, rather than embarking on a larger structural trend. The failed golden fork in 2022 reminds us that technical confirmation alone cannot resolve this uncertainty.

ETH/BTC may be more important than Ethereum's dollar price

Ethereum's latest rebound is significant, but its performance relative to Bitcoin tells a more interesting story. ETH/BTC is up about 25% from its June low, and the new gold fork confirms that Ethereum's relative momentum has improved substantially. But it did not confirm that a new cycle led by Ethereum has begun. After the previous golden fork, there have been both explosive rises and failed breakthroughs. For now, this signal should be interpreted as evidence that market leadership is no longer so focused on Bitcoin. If ETH/BTC continues to climb, while Bitcoin's dominance weakens and a wider range of altcoins begins to participate, the current trend could turn into a larger cryptocurrency market rotation. If these confirmation signals fail to appear, the gold fork may eventually prove to be another lagging signal formed at the end of the recovery rally. Either way, ETH/BTC has become one of the most noteworthy charts.