Ethereum prices fell below key support and threatened to fall to $2,200

Ethereum is in a critical situation: ETH fell below the 50-week moving average, and short pressure intensified

Ethereum is currently facing a severe test. ETH has fallen below its 50-week exponential moving average (current position of $2,372.88), and both daily and 4-hour charts show that selling pressure continues to rise. The core suspense of the market is: Can ETH return to above $2372 and further test the range of $2,412 - 2,421, or will it continue to test down to $2265 or even $2010?

Key Points

The Ethereum price is currently below the 50-week EMA (US$2,372.88), and unless it can regain its footing above this level, the short pattern will continue. Investors need to focus on the initial downward price of US$2365. If it falls below this support level, ETH may seek support from the US$2265 support area. 2412-2421 The US dollar is the latest resistance area that ETH needs to break through. If it can be successfully crossed, it will increase its probability of rebound towards the US$2,500 - 2,550 range. The 50-week simple moving average ($2,541.78) constitutes the main resistance level and is the upper boundary of the TedPillows target area of $2,500 - 2,550. On-chain data shows that the number of active addresses has dropped from approximately 458,000 to 430,000, and the transaction volume has also dropped from approximately 2.025 million to 1.75 million. If ETH falls below the US$2,190 - 2,265 range, it may face the risk of falling to US$2010.

Ethereum prices fall below 50-week moving average

Judging from the weekly chart, US$2,372.88 is a crucial observation point. Previously, ETH was trading at $2404, only $31 above the 50-week moving average. At that time, according to the daily chart, the ETH price was US$2,370.97, which was already below the weekly EMA level. The high and low points of the Danggen daily candle chart are at US$2,427.45 and US$2,365.87 respectively, which means that US$2365 has become a downside risk level that needs to be closely watched at present. If ETH can recover US$2372 and break through the daily 9th EMA (US$2,412.30), the bulls may regain some of the initiative; above this, the 9th EMA (US$2,421.39) in the 4-hour chart will become the next resistance.

US$2265 becomes the next key support

It is clear from the 4-hour chart that the bears quickly took control of the situation: ETH fell from US$2419 to US$2365 in a single candle chart, and the current price is around US$2,370.22. At the same time, the RSI indicator plunged sharply from 46.44 to 31.52. If it falls below 30, it will enter the oversold area. Although oversold conditions may trigger a technical rebound, there is no guarantee that the downward trend will end. If ETH rebounds again to the US$2,400 - 2,421 range and is blocked, bears may target US$2265. The weekly chart shows that the first important support level is in the US$2,190 - 2,265 range. If this area falls, the next key support level will be US$2010.

Data synchronization on the chain weakens

On-chain data further exacerbates market concerns. As ETH prices fell from approximately $2480 to $2420, its market value remained in the range of approximately $32 - 32.4 billion. Since market value is equal to price times the supply in circulation, market value remains stable when prices fall, which may mean an increase in the supply in circulation. Internet activity also declined: the number of active addresses dropped from approximately 458,000 to 430,000, a decrease of approximately 6.1%; transaction volume dropped from 2.025 million to 1.75 million, a decrease of approximately 13.6%. While ETH lost technical support, these two key indicators fell simultaneously, indicating that market participation enthusiasm is cooling.

Ethereum Price Trend: $2200 or $2550?

The next step depends on several key price points. If ETH can recover US$2372 and break through US$2,412 - 2,421, it will significantly enhance the bullish momentum. The upside target will look towards the US$2,500 - 2,550 range, with 50-week SMA (US$2,541.78) being the main resistance level. Conversely, if ETH cannot hold on to $2365, the market focus will shift to $2265. The current data is biased towards short positions: ETH is below the 50-week EMA, below the daily 9th EMA, and below the 4-hour 9th EMA, while network activity has declined. Focus on US$2365: Holding this position for ETH may have a breather for a rebound. The US$2265 breach of rules will become the next important test.