Ethereum price targets $2550, if key EMA support levels are held

Ethereum price fell below US$2,400, increasing tensions between the United States and Iran put pressure on risky assets

On September 2, Ethereum price fell below US$2,400 due to renewed conflicts between the United States and Iran, pushing up oil prices and government bond yields, weakening market demand for risky assets.

Summary

Ethereum prices fell to a low of US$2,356 in the day after failing to break through resistance around US$2,550. In the past 24 hours, approximately $94.2 million in Ethereum futures positions have been liquidated. The daily RSI fell to 59.46, while the 4-hour momentum indicator penetrated further into negative territory. Support around $2,300 will determine whether Ethereum stabilizes or continues its decline to $2,200.

Ethereum prices fell below US$2,400

As of press time, Ethereum prices were trading around US$2,372, down about 1.9% during the day, and the intraday low hit US$2,356. The decline continued a correction from August 27 to a high near $2,510 on the 28 th. Ethereum has now retreated approximately 5.5% from the upper edge of this range. Shorts also pushed prices below the psychological level of $2,400, a level that has limited declines several times in the past two weeks.

The 4-hour chart shows that Ethereum formed a series of lower highs after its last attempt to return to $2,500 on August 31. The selling accelerated on September 2, with the latest 4-hour K-line opening around $2,418 and then falling to a low of $2,356. The decline did not erase Ethereum's overall rebound since August. Ethereum is still above the daily 20-day simple moving average ($2,299) and above the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day moving averages (approximately $2,054,$1,903 and $2,030, respectively).

Staying above these moving averages means that the medium-term structure is still stronger than it was before Ethereum broke through in August, although the short-term trend has weakened.

Tensions between the United States and Iran weigh on cryptocurrency markets

Global markets are under pressure as the United States and Iran resume fighting near the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict has pushed Brent crude closer to $95 a barrel and raised concerns that inflation will rise again. Rising oil prices have intensified the sell-off in the bond market, with the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond climbing to above 4.8%, a nearly three-year high. Higher yields could reduce demand for assets such as cryptocurrencies, as investors can obtain higher returns from government bonds without having to bear the same market risk. The dollar has also strengthened as investors move to defensive positions, putting additional pressure on dollar-denominated assets such as Ethereum.

U.S. monetary policy has also added uncertainty. Data from the Institute for Supply Management showed that the manufacturing purchasing managers 'index fell to 54.6 in August from 55.6 in July. Although the data fell short of market expectations of 55.2, a reading above 50 still suggests that manufacturing is expanding. Continued price pressures and rising energy costs have raised expectations that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates at its September 16 meeting. The market expects a probability of raising interest rates to be about 68%, creating another obstacle to Ethereum's rapid recovery.

Liquidation amplifies Ethereum's decline

Derivatives activity accelerated market volatility after Ethereum fell below short-term support. Data showed that approximately $94.2 million in Ethereum futures positions were liquidated in the past 24 hours. Open interest in Ethereum futures was approximately US$32.48 billion, and futures trading volume was approximately US$54.43 billion. These numbers suggest that despite recent positions being closed, leverage levels remain high.

The one-week liquidation heat chart shows that Ethereum has passed through multiple leveraged long clusters in the $2,400 to $2,360 range. There is still liquidity around US$2,350 to US$2,320 below current prices, and if the sell-off continues, this area may become a potential area for further volatility. The larger cluster above the market is located around $2,480 to $2,510, while the most obvious cluster of resistance above is close to $2,540 to $2,560. A rebound in these areas could force some short positions to be closed, but Ethereum first needs to regain its footing at $2,400 and reverse the lower-high structure on the 4-hour chart. Liquidation heat maps only estimate where leveraged positions may face forced liquidation and do not guarantee that prices will move to specific liquidity clusters.

Ethereum's momentum weakens and approaches key support

The Ethereum Daily Relative Strength Index broke through the overbought threshold during its August rise and has now fallen back to 59.46. The reading is still above the neutral 50 level, but is trending downward, indicating that bullish momentum has cooled. Short-term indicators are more pessimistic. The convergence/divergence indicator of the 4-hour moving average is around-13.66, which is lower than its signal line around-5.58. The MACD histogram is also negative, approximately-8.08. Awesome Oscillator fell to-45.49, further confirming the bearish signal of the 4-hour price structure. Both indicators indicate that bears still have short-term control, but neither confirms the extent to which the decline will extend.

The first main support range is between $2,350 and the 20-day moving average (around $2,299). If the daily line closes below this area, it could expose the $2,200 level, which is also seen by analysts as the next downside target if Ethereum fails to hold above the 50-week exponential moving average. On the upside side, Ethereum must first recover $2,400. Breaking through the $2,500 to $2,550 resistance zone would weaken the bearish pattern and bring the August high back into focus.

Some analysts pointed out Ethereum's performance relative to Bitcoin, noting that the monthly K-line closing price of ETH/BTC was higher than its 20 moving average. Analysts said they confirmed that this moving average is needed as support, and if the breakthrough is maintained, potential targets for ETH/BTC are 0.050 and 0.088. For U.S. investors, oil prices, Treasury yields and expectations for the Fed's decision in September remain direct external catalysts. Continued escalation between the United States and Iran could put pressure on Ethereum, while falling energy prices or interest rate hikes expectations could help Ethereum hold on to the $2,300 area.