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BTC 
ETH Bitcoin approaches a bull market, and market dynamics are eye-catching
Bitcoin's recent upward trajectory is receiving widespread attention, and its price is close to the key threshold of the bull market cycle. However, investors remain highly vigilant due to the complexity of the underlying mechanisms driving this rise. The significant increase in leveraged positions in futures markets appears to exceed demand in the spot market, while strong net inflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs highlight growing institutional participation.
Are bull market signals coming?
On-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. pointed out that Bitcoin is approaching the level of a key model used to identify bull market conversions. Still, official confirmation has not yet arrived, as it takes the daily closing price to break through this bull market reversal threshold for formal confirmation.
Adler said that the price rise has been accompanied by a surge in Open Interest, which suggests that the current momentum is driven more by new futures leverage than by short covering. It is worth noting that long positions have shown an upward trend in 15 of the past 24 hours. Although this situation may push Bitcoin into a bull market stage, if leverage is quickly lifted, it will also increase the risk of a rapid reversal.
What are the driving forces behind strong ETF inflows?
While leverage in the futures market has increased, demand in the spot ETF market has also shown strong. Trader T data showed that on September 3, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of US$730.89 million, setting the third highest single-day net inflow record this year.
Among them, BlackRock's IBIT funds led the way with inflows of $453.96 million, followed by Ark Invest's ARKB ($137.74 million) and Fidelity's FBTC ($74.45 million). Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust recorded an inflow of $48.79 million, and Bitwise's BITB received $24.76 million. In comparison, VanEck's HODL and WisdomTree's BTCW reported outflows of $19.58 million and $5.16 million respectively.
How does Fidelity view the current market landscape?
Fidelity's fourth-quarter outlook highlights that Bitcoin's four-year cycle, market volatility, regulatory changes and institutional adoption are key factors shaping the market path.
Fidelity points out that historically, Bitcoin has established bull market peaks and bear market lows approximately every four years. If this pattern repeats itself, a significant trough could occur around November 2026. However, they warned against using this cycle directly as a guide for market timing.
The recent rebound suggests Bitcoin may hit bottom in July. In the third week of August, Bitcoin rose more than 25%, while Ethereum and Solana also saw significant gains. Despite weak market performance, stablecoin trading and real-world asset tokenization continue to expand, supporting the fundamentals.
Fidelity believes that an increasingly clear regulatory environment, changes in monetary policy and accelerated institutional adoption may maintain a new round of bullish trends. Fidelity emphasizes cautious analysis and recommends that not hastily conclude that the bear market is over just because of recent gains, but that a comprehensive assessment of the interaction between price movements, regulatory trends and the adoption of indicators should be carried out.
