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SOL Bitcoin prices may still face November test
Bitcoin prices rose 4.3% on Friday to break through the $80,000 mark, continuing the recovery that has been seen since late August. Despite the recovery in market sentiment, Fidelity pointed out that the recent rebound is not enough to confirm that the bear market for Bitcoin is over.
According to the historical rules of Bitcoin's four-year cycle, the market may bottom out again around November 2026. The period of low volatility from mid-June to mid-August may indicate that selling pressure is weakening, laying the foundation for a subsequent rebound.
At the same time, increased stablecoins and real-world asset (RWA) activity suggest that adoption of cryptocurrencies continues to grow despite weak market prices. However, changes in the regulatory environment remain a key factor affecting market trends.
Volatility signals suggest that sellers 'momentum is exhausted
From June to mid-August, Bitcoin trading volatility is relatively low. Fidelity Analytics believes that this period suggests that seller power may have begun to weaken. During this period, the prices of Bitcoin and other crypto assets have been hovering at low levels in historical price ranges.
However, by late August, market volatility rose sharply. Bitcoin rose more than 25% in the third week of the month, Ethereum rose about 34%, and Solana rose 28%. Fidelity said the pattern is similar to past market recoveries, but it is not enough to confirm the establishment of a new bull market.
Adoption rates and regulation remain key variables
Despite depressed market sentiment, adoption rates of crypto assets are steadily growing. Bitwise reported in July that stablecoin trading volume had reached 2.3 times that of Visa. In addition, MetaMask pointed out that the real-world asset (RWA) market expanded faster in 2026 than in any previous year.
Fidelity points out that this creates a disconnect between adoption rates and market prices. The recent rebound in Bitcoin prices may indicate that market activity and prices are re-aligning, similar to the transition process that followed the 2021-2022 bear market.
Regulatory policies are equally crucial. The CLARITY Bill has been passed in the House and is currently in the Senate review stage. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has also proposed the Crypto Asset Regulation, which may provide exemptions for some early-stage crypto offerings. These factors will continue to have a profound impact on the future trend of Bitcoin.
