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XRP Market Focus: CLARITY Bill Voting and CPI Data
This week, global cryptocurrency investors are focusing on two major events, including the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data released on Friday. Some investors are more focused on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, while others are focusing on the upcoming September 15 vote on the CLARITY Act (Clear Crypto Asset Regulation Act).
The XRP community seems to favor the latter. As the voting date approaches, the countdown has become one of the hot topics on platforms such as X and Reddit. A well-known user named RippleXity posted on the X platform that the CLARITY Act is important to XRP because it may place the token at the heart of the regulatory framework.
Does XRP have advantages?
The much-awaited legislation aims to establish a comprehensive regulatory framework that clearly divides the regulatory responsibilities of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in the cryptocurrency space. For Ripple's native token XRP, one of the key regulatory questions has been answered through a long and difficult lawsuit.
In March this year, the SEC clearly identified XRP as a digital commodity, grouping it with BTC, ETH, SOL, ADA and several other crypto assets. Regulators say the value of digital commodities stems mainly from the operation of their underlying networks and supply and demand dynamics, rather than relying on profit expectations generated by the management efforts of others.
As a result, the CLARITY Act may provide a more valuable guarantee in the long run: stability. The current SEC and CFTC interpretations may change due to future government changes, but federal legislation is much more difficult to reverse.
The bill would also establish a formal regulatory regime for digital commodity exchanges, brokers and dealers, and give the CFTC a broader role in overseeing the spot digital commodity market. In a recent interview, Ripple's chief legal officer viewed September 15 as a "weathervane" for whether comprehensive crypto legislation can continue to advance through Congress. He also believes that the bill provides a more solid and lasting foundation than agencies alone making rules.
Not final vote
Although the XRP community has high hopes for September 15, it is necessary to clarify that the Senate will not hold a final vote on passing the CLARITY Act that day. Instead, policymakers will vote on a "end debate" motion. This procedural step requires 60 votes to enable H.R. Bill 3633 enters formal review in the Senate.
If this step is not passed, the bill's chances of success this year will be substantially damaged. In the past few months, its probability of success has dropped significantly from more than 70% to about 30%.
Last week, a major law enforcement obstacle was eliminated: The National Sheriff's Association withdrew its objections and shifted to a neutral stance. However, a new report on Monday noted that unresolved ethical disputes may be more serious than expected. Several Republican senators reportedly believe the bill is likely to fail next week, especially if the White House does not help bridge differences on restrictions banning government officials from profiting from the industry.
Overall, XRP is expected to benefit if the cloture vote is successful, but the impact may be moderate. The real significant impact is expected to emerge after the bill formally becomes law. However, if the September 15 vote fails, XRP could suffer a sharp decline, as did the entire market. If the Fed subsequently raised interest rates and showed a stronger stance, the situation could even deteriorate further the next day.
