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ZEC Bitcoin rebounds to around $79,000: Inflation data and "golden cross" signals jointly boost the market
As mixed U.S. inflation data pushes up the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike expectations, Bitcoin (BTC) has renewed its assault on the $79,000 mark. At the same time, the new form of "golden cross" technology provides support for the broader cryptocurrency bull market.
Core Points
- In August, the consumer price index (CPI) rose 3.4% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month; although the core inflation rate slowed to 2.4%, the monthly reading still exceeded market expectations.
- Bitcoin recovered after an initial decline. On the eve of the Federal Reserve's September 15-16 meeting, Ethereum, Solana and the entire crypto market all showed an upward trend.
- The new "golden cross" formed by Bitcoin has strengthened technical bullish signals, but outflows and main resistance levels from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) remain current obstacles.
Analysis of inflation data
According to data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday, the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) rose 3.4% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month from July, in line with market consensus expectations. The annual headline inflation rate was unchanged from July.
The year-on-year growth rate of core CPI excluding food and energy slowed from 2.5% to 2.4%, the lowest level since 2021. However, its month-on-month reading reached 0.3%, higher than market expectations of 0.2%. After the data was released, Bitcoin once fell to around $76,040, then quickly reversed, reaching a high of $79,837, and stabilized at around $79,007 in late trading. This trend has once again brought the psychological threshold of $80,000 into the market's focus.
The rebound effect spread to mainstream tokens: Ethereum (ETH) rose 7.48% to US$2,611;Solana (SOL) rose 4.53% to stand above US$100;Zcash (ZEC) rose 4.71% on the day, with a weekly gain of 23.09%.
Fed Policy Outlook
This inflation report was released five days before the Fed's September 15-16 meeting. Currently, CME Group data shows that the probability of a 25-basis point interest rate hike on market pricing is approximately 69%; in comparison, pricing on Polymarket and Myriad platforms is 62% and 61% respectively. Therefore, this interest rate negotiation decision remains a key risk factor in the short term.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell once said that policymakers still have "work to do" to fight inflation. Previously, three regional Fed presidents had favored raising interest rates at their July meeting. Despite this, sentiment in the crypto market has improved, with the total market value approaching US$2.7 trillion. The "Fear and Greed Index" jumped from 56 to 73, and the "Altcoin Season Index" stood at 38.
Although the spot Bitcoin ETF still recorded a net outflow of approximately US$330.5 million, open interest in crypto futures increased 1.52% to US$429.99 billion, and 24-hour derivatives trading volume increased 2.27% to US$87.711 billion. The total liquidation amount reached US$897.09 million, of which US$493.85 million was liquidated for long positions and US$403.24 million was liquidated for short positions.
Technical Analysis
Bitcoin's 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) has crossed the 200-day average, forming an early "golden cross", with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 59.7 and the Average Direction Index (ADX) remaining in the 40 range. However, the current confirmation signal is still limited.
The current market landscape is based on Bitcoin's summer market, with prices climbing from US$68,858 to a high of US$82,281 at the end of August. Currently, the correction area of US$73,986 to US$75,569 is regarded as a key support level. If it can be effectively held, it will accumulate strength for the next hit to the August high.
