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BTC Bitcoin fluctuates around US$77,000, analysts focus on US$81,700 resistance
Although it has fallen more than 3% over the past week, Bitcoin is currently trading at approximately US$77,327, a slight increase of 0.1% daily. As traditional dollar-denominated investments regain investor interest, market expectations of continued higher interest rates continue to put pressure on cryptocurrencies.
Key resistance levels challenge market momentum
Blockchain analysis firm CryptoQuant pointed out that Bitcoin's significant 24% rebound in the previous two weeks has lost momentum, and assets are currently consolidating in the range of US$76,000 to US$82,000, and a clear direction has not yet been established. Julio Moreno, director of research at CryptoQuant, emphasized that $77,100 to $80,200 is a key resistance band. Within this region, long-term holders sold 539,000 BTC units in a month, creating the largest supply barrier above current trading levels.
Moreno also pointed out the importance of the 365-day simple moving average, which is currently located around $81,700. Historically, a technical indicator of a closing price breakthrough has often marked the beginning of a Bitcoin bull cycle. He pointed out that breaking through and standing above that threshold could confirm the return of a new round of bullish trends.
Based on CryptoQuant's 3x Metcalfe bandwidth model based on network-related inputs such as active wallet addresses, a further key resistance level appears at $83,600. The $88,700 corresponds to the upper limit on which traders realize the price model, an area that is usually accompanied by increased profit-taking behavior.
Moreno emphasized: "Bitcoin first needs to digest the selling pressure above and break through the valuation ceiling before it can start a new upward trend."
Trades, a trader, commented on Platform X that Bitcoin remains on the sidelines at major high-time frame resistance levels. He pointed out that prices are falling slightly and that the Federal Reserve's upcoming FOMC meeting is seen as an important event. Daan said clearing the $83,000 mark may have been an attempt to gain liquidity, but he believes holding the support area of $73,000 to $74,000 is crucial to the long-term positive outlook.
ETF outflow sign flow direction shifts
U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded a net outflow of US$463 million between September 7 and September 11, ending three consecutive weeks of net inflows. The reversal in ETF funds flows reflects a more cautious attitude among investors as they wait for signals from the Fed's policy decisions.
In comparison, the spot Ethereum ETF recorded an inflow of US$197 million during the same period. This difference highlights the emotional divergence among investors between different dominant digital assets. Moreno also identified $70,000 as a key support level for Bitcoin, which is in line with the 200-day moving average. If further selling occurs, the $62,000 to $65,000 area could stimulate buying, as long-term holders purchased 476,000 BTC units in this range this year.
Bitcoin's Role in Institutional Investment Strategy
A recent report released by Swiss digital asset company Bitcoin Suisse explores the role of Bitcoin as a tool for portfolio diversification. The company pointed out that the increase in U.S. government debt and historic investment in artificial intelligence are bringing new complexity to traditional equity and debt portfolios.
The company's quantitative research shows that allocating 1% of portfolio assets to Bitcoin (reallocating from fixed income) can increase the annualized rate of return from 6.2% to 7.2%. After increasing Bitcoin exposure to 2.5%, the return further increased to 8.6%.
Analysts at the company suggest that these findings highlight the growing attention Bitcoin is receiving as an alternative asset in institutional strategies as traditional options face changing macroeconomic risks.
