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BTC VanEck Chief Digital Assets Researcher: Bitcoin may return to the US$100,000 mark in 2027
Matthew Sigel, chief digital assets researcher at VanEck Global Investment Management, pointed out in an interview with CNBC that Driven by intensified fiscal policy concerns and major changes in market structure, Bitcoin is expected to regain the US$100,000 mark in 2027.
Macroeconomic factors and Bitcoin stability
Siegel said that continued fiscal policy shifts and the expansion of sovereign debt are key drivers of enhancing Bitcoin's status as a macro hedging tool for global institutional portfolios. He commented that as central banks adjust liquidity policies and government debt expands, Bitcoin is increasingly seen as an alternative asset with diversified risks.
Despite recent macroeconomic fluctuations, the price of Bitcoin has remained at around US$80,000, demonstrating significant stability in the face of broader economic challenges. Siegel emphasized that institutional investment demand remained strong, underscoring the resilience of the asset.
He pointed out that a key factor is the significant decline in Bitcoin's annualized price volatility. Compared with four years ago, this indicator has been reduced by about 50%. This reduction in volatility marks the maturity of the asset class, as market activity is gradually shifting away from retail speculation to more institutional participation.
Behind this stability is the deterioration of global sovereign debt conditions. Governments are still "over-indebted", and policymakers are increasingly inclined to choose assets such as Bitcoin with hard caps.
西格尔提到，目前交易者为看跌期权支付的费用高于看涨期权，这表明投资者普遍持谨慎态度。然而，随着美国财政部实施国债回购计划，激进的空头回补行情已经发生，部分抵消了对冲策略的影响。
机构资金流向与稳定币的增长
西格尔断言，机构买入步伐依然稳健。从独立财务顾问到大型主权财富基金，各方均表明在市场回调期间持续积累比特币。
此外，VanEck预计稳定币将迎来快速普及。他指出，立法者与传统金融机构之间的政策摩擦是推动这一趋势的重要因素。西格尔形容传统银行游说重新审视《GENIUS法案》下实施的监管措施为“remarkable irony”（惊人的讽刺），因为该法案是美国专注于稳定币治理的一项立法举措。
传统银行的这一反弹促使更多投资者寻求去中心化的金融交易替代方案，从而加速了向数字资产和基于区块链解决方案的转变。
监管挑战依然存在
西格尔警告称，通往10万美元的道路并非没有障碍。他引用了美国参议院未能通过《Clarity Act》（清晰度法案）的最新案例。该法案的延迟导致证券交易委员会（SEC）与商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）之间的重要定义悬而未决，加剧了市场监管环境中的不确定性。
尽管如此，尽管立法进程放缓，机构采用仍在继续推进。最近的货币政策变化，如央行加息和持续的主权信用风险，进一步将资本流入引导至被视为价值存储的数字资产中。
如果政府赤字持续上升，且全球货币政策趋向宽松，比特币可能会为另一轮上涨做好充分准备。要实现10万美元的目标，当前价格需要上涨约25%。
如果财政赤字继续扩大且货币宽松恢复，日历似乎对预期在未来一年内达到10万美元目标的比特币多头有利。
