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ETH 以太坊重新站稳2500美元：质押与ETF持续吸收供应，市场流动性趋紧
以太坊（ETH）价格已重新回升至2500美元上方。与此同时，质押活动以及美国现货ETF的持仓量持续吸收市场流通供应，导致可供交易的ETH数量减少。
核心要点
- 质押率显著上升：截至9月18日，质押ETH占比达到35.56%，较2025年9月的29.8%有明显提升。
- ETF资产规模扩大：美国现货以太坊ETF持有约167亿美元资产，累计净流入资金达132.5亿美元。
- 流动性变薄放大波动：若现货需求增强或反转，较薄的流动供应可能会加剧价格波动幅度。
以太坊供应结构转变
以太坊价格重回2500美元关口之上，伴随着交易所流动性的降低以及代币持续迁移至质押状态。最新数据显示，在近期的反弹行情中，ETH正加速流出交易所，减少了市场上立即可用于抛售的筹码。这种供应收紧在买家保持活跃时有助于支撑价格；然而，如果需求减弱，由于流动性不足可能放大波动性，这也可能导致更深的下跌走势。
Pledges have become another major supply constraint. The pledge ratio of ETH increased from approximately 29.8% in September 2025 to 35.56% on September 18, 2026. During this period, the pledge rate exceeded 32% in April and continued to climb during the summer. CryptoQuant data shows that the funding rate remains around 0.0046, indicating that with the increase in pledge volume, leverage has not increased significantly simultaneously.
ETF demand further tightens liquidity supply
Institutional demand further tightens liquidity supply through the U.S. spot Ethereum ETF. According to SoSoValu data cited by AMBCrypto, the cumulative net inflow of ETFs is approximately US$13.25 billion, and the total asset management size (AUM) is approximately US$16.7 billion, equivalent to about 5.2% of the total market value of Ethereum.
BlackRock's ETHA leads the sector with assets of more than US$9 billion, but the daily flow of funds is uneven. During the recent trading hours, the flow of funds fluctuated between a large net outflow and a net inflow of US$143.8 million, indicating that demand for ETFs is still active, but there is no trend in one direction around US$2500.
The changing supply structure makes the impact of spot demand on prices more significant. When more ETH is locked in pledged contracts or regulated funds and balances left on exchanges decrease, new buying orders will have a greater boost to prices, but in less liquid markets, selling pressure can also trigger more drastic price movements.
值得注意的是，以太坊的供应转变是过去一年逐步形成的，而非仅由最近的反弹所引发。从2025年9月到2026年9月，质押比例上升了近六个百分点，同时ETF资产规模扩张且交易所流动性下降，这使得当前在2500美元关口的测试与以往拥有更多自由流通ETH的时期截然不同。
