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以太坊（ETH）价格走势：$2,600反弹对第四季度的意义

2026-09-21 18:12:06

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ETH

摘要

质押机制将更多ETH移出流通市场，年末价格预测分歧巨大

ETH价格从2,360美元反弹至近2,668美元，随后稳定在2,600美元附近，但仍比2025年10月的高点低约47%。
自2025年5月以来，交易所持有的ETH余额下降了28%，减少了可随时抛售的供应量。
过去一年中，质押的ETH比例从29.8%上升至35.56%，进一步将代币移出流通市场。
现货ETH ETF目前持有约167亿美元资产，约占以太坊总市值的5.2%。
Fundstrat的Tom Lee表示，如果比特币达到15万美元且ETH/BTC比率升至0.04，ETH可能触及6,000美元。

以太坊价格在经历波动后回升

在本月初经历了一段艰难时期后，以太坊（ETH）的价格已重新站稳在2,500美元上方。该代币在9月16日左右跌至2,360.70美元，随后反弹至2,668美元，最终稳定在2,600美元附近。尽管出现了这一反弹，但ETH价格仍比2025年10月约4,946美元的高点低约47%。这种反弹是真实的，但并未改变更大的宏观趋势。

供应面收紧：交易所余额下降与质押增长

Part of the story is the change in supply. Since May 2025, the ETH balance held by the exchange has dropped from 14.8 million to 25.7 million (Note: The data logic here seems to be contradictory. Usually, a decline in the balance means a decrease in the number. If it drops from 14.8 million to 25.7 million, it is an increase. Combined with the context "drop of about 28%", it is speculated that the original meaning the balance has decreased significantly. The original numerical description is retained here but the downward trend is emphasized), with a decrease of about 28%. The fewer tokens left on the exchange, the fewer tokens there are ready to be sold quickly. If demand continues to rise, smaller available supply will amplify price fluctuations.

Pledge activity grows with the outflow of exchange funds. As of September 2025, the proportion of pledged ETH increased from 29.8% to 35.56% as of September 18, 2026. This growth momentum has remained stable since January this year, exceeding 32% in April and throughout the summer. Each pledged token is locked out rather than remaining on the open market for trading. Ethereum Price on CoinGecko

The funding rate is approximately 0.0046 at the time of writing. This suggests that leveraged transactions have not surged with the growth of pledges, pointing to a more stable market structure.

ETF brings new layer of demand

US spot ETH ETF brings another layer of demand. Total inflows were approximately US$13.25 billion, and total assets were close to US$16.7 billion. This figure accounts for approximately 5.2% of Ethereum's total market value. BlackRock's ETHA fund leads other products, holding more than $9 billion in assets.

近期的资金流向并不均匀。周中以太坊出现了超过4亿美元的流出，随后在9月18日迎来了1.438亿美元的流入。

年末价格预测差异巨大

在价格方面，预测范围很广。Fundstrat的Tom Lee表示，如果比特币达到15万美元，且ETH/BTC比率恢复到0.04，ETH可能在12月达到6,000美元。BitMEX创始人Arthur Hayes则更为乐观，他将ETH列为其最大仓位，并指出到2026年底价格可能达到10,000美元。

其他预测则较为保守。渣打银行的Geoff Kendrick对2026年底的目标价为4,000美元，而花旗集团此前曾将12个月目标价定低至2,240美元。

技术分析与网络升级

在图表上，ETH交易于其50日和200日移动平均线之上，分别为2,272.50美元和2,076.10美元。阻力位位于2,655美元至2,672美元之间。突破这一区域可能为价格打开通往2,800-3,000美元的大门；若无法维持，则可能使2,400美元重新成为关键支撑位。

以太坊的下一个网络升级“Glamsterdam”也已提上日程。Sepolia测试网版本定于10月6日上线，主网升级计划安排在第四季度。此次升级旨在提高吞吐量、并行执行能力以及更大的blob容量。截至9月20日，ETH继续围绕2,600美元交易，ETH/BTC比率约为0.032。

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