比特币减半进程加速,市场期待升温
知名链上数据与周期分析师 Root 近日在 X 平台发布截图并指出,距离下一次比特币减半的进度已达到 61%。这一关键时间节点的进展引发了广泛关注。
减半机制的重要意义
比特币减半大约每四年发生一次,旨在将矿工生产新区块的奖励减半。在 2024 年 4 月进行的上一次减半中,区块奖励从 6.25 BTC 降至 3.125 BTC。按照当前节奏,预计下一次减半将于 2028 年进行,届时奖励将进一步削减至 1.5625 BTC。区块链数据平台 OKLink 预测,该事件可能发生在 2028 年 4 月 13 日,目前距离目标日期还有 109,012 个区块需要挖掘。
市场预期如何?
面向下一次减半,市场情绪普遍积极。Coinbase 首席执行官 Brian Armstrong 曾强调,比特币在半减事件前往往呈现上涨趋势。他预计未来几年将为比特币的增长提供有利的环境。
根据 CoinMarketCap 数据,比特币价格小幅上涨 0.86%,报收于 86,099 美元。加密货币价格一度触及自 2026 年初以来的新高,达到 87,397 美元。技术面方面,比特币已重新站上其长期移动平均线,此前它已在该均线下方运行近 300 天。维持在这一水平之上对于延续长期看涨趋势至关重要。
In addition, Bitcoin closed above its 365-day moving average for the first time (since March 2023), which is seen as a key indicator in the main rally since 2019. The next level of resistance is expected to be in the $88,000 to $90,000 range.
ETF capital inflows intensify
The net single-day inflow of spot Bitcoin ETF exceeded US$1 billion, setting a record for the strongest single-day inflow since October 2025. Among them, BlackRock's IBIT fund led the way with inflows of US$381 million, while ARK21 Shares and Fidelity's funds also recorded net inflows of more than US$200 million each.
Thanks to this significant increase in holdings, the average holding cost of Bitcoin ETF investors is once again lower than the current price of Bitcoin. The current estimated cost of holding a single currency is US$81,722. As Bitcoin prices break through this threshold, investors have achieved overall profits for the first time since January this year.

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