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BTC 比特币最新走势指向新市场周期开启
比特币近期的价格波动迹象表明，一个新的市场周期正在启动。机构投资的增加以及强劲链上信号显示，该数字资产的增长轨迹正在发生转变。
机构兴趣如何影响比特币周期
区块链分析公司CryptoQuant的创始人Ki Young Ju表示，当前的看涨阶段可能会推动比特币价格上涨三到五倍。然而，他预计与以往由快速飙升和急剧回调为特征的周期相比，波动性将明显降低。
Ju解释道，比特币不断扩大的市值加上持续涌入的机构投资者，正在从根本上改变该资产的市场结构。在这种新环境下，出现此前牛市那种极端价格波动的可能性较小，因为过去的牛市主要依赖散户投资者的需求和流动性不足时期。
在以往的周期中，这些动态使得比特币能够急剧上涨，有时甚至产生十倍收益，但随后会从高点下跌多达80%。Ju认为在当前环境下，不会出现如此高的波动性。
他指出，随着更广泛的机构参与和更高的市值，“原始”巨鲸（OG Whales）和长期持有者减少了抛售活动——这有望在牛市期间稳定价格，与早期周期相比情况有所不同。
截至发稿时，比特币交易价格为86,885美元，过去24小时内上涨1.74%。24小时交易量达到472.5亿美元，总市值已达1.75万亿美元。
链上指标显示动态变化
Ju引用了多个支持比特币新周期的链上指标，指出MVRV比率超过1，表明当前市场价格高于持有者的成本基础。
MVRV比率衡量的是市值与实现价值的对比，用于评估比特币相对于投资者支付价格的溢价或折价情况。
名词解释：MVRV比率（Market Value to Realized Value Ratio），即市值与实现价值之比，将比特币当前的市值与其上次在链上移动时的所有硬币价值进行比较。MVRV高于1表明当前市场价格高于持有者的平均成本基础，可能暗示市场处于高估状态。
CryptoQuant还追踪实现资本化（Realized Capitalization）——反映投资者集体为其持仓支付的金额——该数值有所增加，支持了市场韧性增强的观点。
另一个显著趋势是早期采用者和大型持有者的抛压下降。Ju将最近的价格上涨归因于这些长期投资者限制了他们的分发行为，这与早期周期中持续的抛售导致大幅回调的情况形成鲜明对比。
Ju also pointed to long positions built around cyclical lows by major futures players and highlighted CryptoQuant's 365-day profit and loss index, which suggests the market is at a critical turning point.
The impact of Bitcoin ETFs and institutional participation
Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are playing a growing role in the Bitcoin market. On September 23, analyst Crypto Patel pointed out that Bitcoin has returned to its estimated average ETF holder cost base of $81,722. The move put most ETF investors into profit for the first time in months and marked a return to confidence among institutional participants.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs provide institutional investors with regulated asset exposure, increase mainstream adoption rates, and have the potential to enhance market stability.
This recovery trend is likely to continue as long as BTC prices remain above the average entry point for ETF holders, but analysts warn that price movements may still shift rapidly due to changes in demand liquidity.
Improvements in on-chain indicators, reduced early investor selling and the return to profitability among ETF participants have highlighted the transformation of the current bull cycle, making it more stable than previous cycles. Ju's more modest 3-to 5-fold increase reflects his belief that Bitcoin is moving forward under new market conditions, which could moderate the high volatility of the early cycle.
Still, Bitcoin's price ultimately depends on factors such as global market liquidity, investor sentiment and position changes. While on-chain analyses reveal market structure, they cannot provide absolute predictions about the direction of prices.
历史周期对比
因此，当前的比特币周期以强劲的机构参与度、改善的链上指标以及与早年相比全新的市场增长方式为特征。
