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XRP 核心要点
此次回调已触及更深层的支撑区域。1.42美元结合了斐波那契回撤位与对角线支撑，具有多重技术意义。若该位置失守，1.35美元可能成为更广泛的测试目标。RSI指标已从高位冷却，表明短期动能减弱。目前来看，9月份形成的市场结构依然保持建设性态势。
XRP突破首个回调测试点
截至写作时，根据市场数据，XRP的交易价格约为1.48美元，此前曾短暂跌破位于1.53美元附近的23.6%斐波那契回撤位。该水平曾是XRP反弹至近期1.70美元高点后的第一道潜在缓冲带。交易价格低于此位置，意味着市场关注点正转向下方更深的支撑区域。
XRP/USD日线图显示，斐波那契回撤位是基于8月底约0.99美元的低点与近期约1.70美元的高点之间可见的日线涨幅绘制的。这些水平为回调提供了参考区域，但并不意味着价格必须在此反转。
目前的注意力转移到图表下方，即斐波那契水平与XRP现有结构重叠的区域。此前分析曾探讨XRP的复苏能否发展为持续趋势，重点在于突破尝试及其周围的市场活动。当前的图表则追踪随后发生的回调过程。
第一个深层测试位在1.42美元附近
The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level is in the $1.42 -1.43 range. At the same time, the rising diagonal support line is also close to this area, making the significance of this range higher than that reflected by a single reference indicator.
Technical resonance in charts does not create price points that must be accurate to the slightest. The XRP may briefly cross the range and recover, or it may remain below the range for several trading days. These results will imply varying levels of buying demand during the pullback.
- About US$1.53: The first correction level fell. The failure of the shallow pullback prompted attention to the support area below.
- About US$1.42: First decision-making area. The 38.2% retracement level and rising diagonal support converge here.
- About $1.35: Deeper structural testing. If the $1.42 defense line falls, the 50% retracement level and the upper edge of the front flag-shaped pattern may become the next reference point for the market.
The $1.35 region may test early breakout structures
If XRP effectively falls below $1.42, attention may turn to the $1.34 -1.36 region, where 50% of the Fibonacci retracement level is around $1.34.
The upper boundary of the flag-shaped pattern that XRP previously broke through during the September recovery also extends to this range. If prices enter that area, traders may watch to see if buyers respond near the upper edge of the front flag shape after an early breakout. Its overlap with the 50% Fibonacci level gives the area additional weight.
50周期简单移动平均线（SMA）也在附近。虽然均线可能继续上升，但对于在多个交易日中观察图表的读者而言，50%斐波那契回撤位提供了更稳定的参考基准。
早期的1.60美元阻力提供背景参考
我们之前曾报道过XRP在1.60美元附近熟悉的阻力区域的遭遇。随后XRP突破了该范围，达到了约1.70美元的局部高点。
当前的回调可能显示出，在此前进程中恢复的水平能否在下行过程中开始提供支撑。这使得图表下方的区域比遥远的上涨预测更具即时参考价值。
降温的动量仍留有调整空间
每日RSI已从早期高点回落，不再处于超买区域。这一动向表明，推动XRP复苏的快速动量已经缓和。
在此处，RSI最好用作背景信息而非择时信号。价格在1.42美元，必要时在1.35美元的行为，可以更清晰地测试买盘是否在调整期间保持活跃。
XRP仍然远高于8月底约1.00美元的基础区域，且日线图在价格下方仍保留着一条上升支撑线。这些特征使9月份的复苏结构目前在结构上保持完整。
XRP在1.42美元的表现可能定义此次回调
XRP已越过首个浅层回调水平，留下1.42美元区域作为对9月份复苏的下一个测试。如果反弹在该范围内企稳，下跌可能仅限于更广泛的修正范围内。
如果持续在该区域下方交易，注意力可能会转向1.35美元，那里50%的回撤位与前旗形边界交汇。XRP在这些两个支撑区域的表现，可能比另一个遥远的目标更能清晰地揭示这次反弹的持久性。
本文仅供参考，不构成财务或投资建议。加密货币价格波动剧烈，技术位可能迅速变化。
