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BTC CME集团宣布推出全球首个算力期货合约
芝加哥商业交易所（CME Group）已宣布，首批算力期货合约计划于2026年10月5日上市，此举需待监管机构批准。该举措将为全球各类人工智能应用所使用的输入资源提供公开的市场参考价格。
对于过去一年中致力于转型为AI数据中心算力提供商的比特币矿工而言，这意味着他们不再仅仅是哈希算力的卖家，更可以成为可交易商品的 producer（生产者）。矿业公司商业计划书所面临的新困境在于：随着算力交易像石油或电力一样商品化，拥有服务器机柜、芯片和兆瓦级电力的企业将被视为底层资产的所有者。首次在市场上可观测到的期货价格，将为AI算力容量的边际成本提供估值依据。
CME将AI算力定位为华尔街的“新石油”
CME早在今年5月就提出了这一概念，当时披露了与Silicon Data的合作协议。Silicon Data是一家由交易公司DRW资助的GPU基准测试公司。8月正式确定了时间表：在获得监管批准后，两款基于Silicon Data的英伟达硅片指数的合约将于10月5日启动。
According to the Financial Times, the hourly rental rate for the B200 chip is about $5.86, compared with just $2.77 for the older H100 model. CME's contract will track the forward value of such pricing over the next 36 months. CME representatives made no secret of their ambitions. Pete Keavey, CME's global head of energy and environment products, said when announcing the product launch: "Computing power has become the currency of the AI era." CME CEO Terry Duffy expressed the same view in May, calling computing power "the new oil of the 21st century." DRW founder Don Wilson predicts that before the introduction of a computing power hedging mechanism, computing power will become the world's largest commodity.
Why do we need to determine computing power prices at this moment?
The core of this strategy lies in scale and volatility. According to the Financial Times, citing a report from the Boston Consulting Group (BCG), the AI computing power market is expected to expand from approximately US$360 billion in 2025 to nearly US$2.3 trillion in 2030. Against this backdrop of expansion, price fluctuations are extremely sharp: during the semiconductor shortage in the first half of 2024, the rent for the H100 GPU was about $8 per hour, but by the end of last year, the price fell below $2. It is this volatility that drives commercial buyers to seek hedging tools.
Blackstone Group CEO Larry Fink elaborated this view succinctly at a Milken Institute conference in May this year. "There will be a new asset class-purchasing power futures," he said. He listed computing power, electricity and semiconductors as assets in serious shortages in the United States. Brett Harrison, CEO of derivatives platform Architect, estimates that by the end of the decade, the total nominal contract value of computing power futures will reach US$1 trillion per year.
Miners already own the underlying assets
At this time, the Bitcoin mining industry has entered view. According to the first quarter 2026 mining report released by CoinShares, listed mining companies have signed AI and high-performance computing (HPC) contracts worth more than US$70 billion in the past year. CoinShares expects that AI will generate 30% to 70% of revenue for these mining companies by the end of this year, compared with only 30% currently. Companies such as TeraWulf, Core Scientific, Cipher Mining and Hut8 have transformed into what CoinShares calls "data center operators that also happen to be mining Bitcoin."
Economic logic explains this rush of activity. The cost of Bitcoin mining hardware is estimated to be approximately US$700,000 to US$1 million per megawatt, while the cost of AI systems is US$8 million to US$15 million per megawatt. Companies such as IREN and Bitfarms are turning to HPC providers. An active computing power market could bring to this group what oil drillers and power producers have always had: a way to hedge output.
Benchmark still needs to be formed
一切尚未定型。不仅是CME，洲际交易所（ICE）也在5月宣布计划基于Ornn公司的另一指数列出自己的GPU算力期货。此外，Architect已收购了一家受商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）监管的未来交易所，以开发“美国创新交易所”。据Cryptopolitan报道，中国也在考虑推出其版本的AI算力期货。
金融时报指出了真正的挑战：三分之二到四分之三的期货合约最终未能产生足够的利润。算力具有异构性（一小时的H100算力不同于一小时的B200算力），两个关键指数有时对评估存在差异，且该商品的供应商主要为英伟达和少数超大规模云服务商。无论市场是证实还是证伪AI热潮，金融时报认为，算力期货的重要性更多在于作为一种信号，而非单纯的市场交易品种。
