Exchange Ranking
Top Exchanges
24h Volume Ranking
Popularity Ranking
Exchange BTC Balance
Proof of Reserves
Decentralized Exchanges
Funding Rate
Funding Heatmap
Liquidation Data
Max Pain
Long/Short Ratio
Whale L/S Ratio
Binance/Okex/Huobi L/S
Bitfinex Margin L/S
ETF Tracker
Solana ETF
XRP ETF
Hong Kong ETF
Bitcoin Treasuries
Crypto Reversal
Ethereum Reserves
HyperLiquid Wallet Analysis
Hyperliquid Whale Watch
Large Transactions
On-chain Movement
Bitcoin ROI
Stablecoin Market Cap
Options Analysis
News
Articles
Economic Calendar
Features
Wallet
Contract Calculator
Security
Collections
Watchlist
Following
BTC The truth behind Bitcoin's three-year 225% increase: A very small number of trading days contributed to the vast majority of gains
In the three years ended September 23, Bitcoin achieved an astonishing increase of 225%, but this mainly depends on a very few trading days. Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale, pointed out in a report released October 5 that less than 0.5% of all trading days showed enough upward momentum; if these days were excluded, the cumulative yield would shrink by more than half.
However, the five best trading days alone are enough to cause this impact. If these five days are excluded, Bitcoin still retains 95% of its gains, well below its total increase of 225%.
Nasdaq 100 Index: 21% profit after excluding the strongest 15 trading days
Pandl said that these data are derived from Grayscale's research series "The Stack" and are based on spot BTC/USD prices. If ten trading days are excluded, Bitcoin's earnings will drop to 27%; if fifteen trading days are excluded, Bitcoin will experience a loss of 11%.
During the same period, the Nasdaq 100 Index, which tracks large non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq, achieved a return of 109%. Even excluding the 15 strongest trading days, the index rose 21%, indicating a more evenly distributed distribution of earnings.
Before excluding these extreme trading days, Bitcoin's 225% return was more than double the 109% return on the Nasdaq 100 Index. However, once these days were eliminated, Bitcoin's advantage over the index reversed. In the end, Bitcoin recorded a loss of 11%, while the Nasdaq 100 index maintained a positive gain of 21%.
Opportunity costs and the importance of long-term holdings
Pandl illustrates this result from an opportunity cost perspective. He pointed out that for extremely volatile assets like Bitcoin, not being in the market is itself a risk, although people usually pay more attention to the possibility of financial losses when measuring risk. "Investors waiting for volatility to subside or the outlook to become clear before entering may find that most of the repricing process has already occurred." Pandl wrote.
Given that these key trading days cannot be reliably predicted in advance, Grayscale believes that investors can only seize these opportunities by holding Bitcoin in advance. Therefore, for long-term investors seeking capital appreciation, the advice is to maintain stable position exposure rather than trying to market timing.
Pandl extracts three lessons from the phenomenon of uneven returns: They reveal the difficulty of timing Bitcoin's entry into the market, the cost of being on the "wrong side" of volatility, and the cost of giving up long-term upside potential. It should be noted that Grayscale's data does not include management fees and expenses and is only for example.
Bitcoin is still in its early stages of development
Grayscale has seen Bitcoin's ups and downs throughout the year. A report in February noted that after Bitcoin fell from a peak above $126,000 to about $60,000, its trading characteristics were more like high-growth software stocks than gold. Pandl said Bitcoin is still in its early stages of development compared to gold, which has been used as a currency for thousands of years.
Previously, some analysts warned that the market structure is fragile due to the concentrated purchase of a few digital asset treasury companies. It is estimated that if 2% of the US$110 trillion in intergenerational wealth transfers flows into the cryptocurrency sector, it will bring US$2.2 trillion in new demand to the market.
