山寨币季节即将来临吗？分析师发出关键警告

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Has the altcoin season really begun? Analysts: Currently, it is only a local market

As investors are looking for answers when the "altcoin season" will start, although some altcoins such as Zcash and Quant have experienced sharp increases, analyst Dennis Liu pointed out that there has not yet been a widespread altcoin season in the market.

Liu posted his opinion on the X platform (formerly Twitter) under the name of VirtualBacon that since Bitcoin hit bottom, on average, altcoins have only performed about 10% better than Bitcoin. He emphasized that market fluctuations brought by a few strong currencies can easily give people the illusion that the market popularity far exceeds the actual level. For him, the key is not the rise of individual currencies, but whether the altcoin as a whole has gained general strength relative to Bitcoin.

Why hasn't the altcoin season yet arrived?

The core indicator of Liu's analysis is the Total2/BTC ratio. This ratio measures the strength of the altcoin market relative to BTC by comparing the total market value of cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin with the market value of Bitcoin.

Analysts pointed out that the chart still shows a "highly horizontal volatility" pattern. Liu believes that since the low point of Bitcoin, the average altcoin has only exceeded BTC by about 10%. This data is not enough to confirm that the real altcoin season has arrived. In previous extensive altcoin cycles, the rise was not limited to a few tokens, but spread to a wider market. Liu said that such a pattern does not currently exist.

山寨币真的将比特币抛在身后了吗？

尽管部分山寨币表现强劲，但整体性能呈现出不同的图景。Zcash 自年初以来一直是领先者之一，Venice 和 Quant 近期也属于表现优于比特币的币种之列。

Zcash 在过去一年中的涨幅超过 726%，而 QNT 在几天内飙升 530%，从 59 美元涨至 370 美元。然而，Liu 强调，这类个别行情并不能证明山寨币季节的到来。此外，XRP 甚至未能超越比特币，而 Ethereum、Solana 和 BNB 的表现仅略高于比特币。

Liu 的信息非常明确：少数山寨币的剧烈上涨并不意味着资金已全面涌入整个山寨币市场。

Zcash 和 QNT 上涨，为何仍无山寨币季节？

Liu 认为，市场中少数强势币种的存在，容易让投资者误以为整个山寨币市场已启动类似行情。然而，Total 2/BTC 比率的有限变动表明，这种上涨尚未具备广泛性。

因此，Liu 建议不要将山寨币统一视为一个“季节”，而是单独追踪各币种的独立走势。他认为，无需等待比特币创下新纪录；在 2017 年和 2020 年底的某些时期，这种策略曾行之有效，而在 2024 年，尽管比特币创下新高，许多山寨币却相对 BTC 贬值。

In view of this, Liu prefers to focus on seemingly strong movements in individual altcoins rather than expecting broad seasonal signals.

How important is Bitcoin's impact on the altcoin season?

Bitcoin has not yet shown strong trend movement. BTC fell back to $85,000 on Monday after encountering resistance at $87,000 and then consolidated sideways in the $85,000 to $86,000 range.

Bitcoin has a market value of approximately US$1.72 trillion, accounting for approximately 58% of the entire crypto market share. Liu pointed out that the short-term trend of BTC needs to focus on the daily pivot point of US$83,000. If it breaks below this level, it may move towards the bull market support level of $78,000; if it holds at $83,000, it is expected to rise above $87,000 again.

This is crucial for altcoins. Until the direction of Bitcoin is clear, it will be more difficult to judge whether the altcoin market has entered a stage of widespread rotation.

When does the altcoin season begin?

Liu currently does not believe that the current situation constitutes a complete altcoin season. In his view, in addition to the sharp rise of a few currencies, to confirm the widespread rotation of altcoins, we need to see a stronger and more popular performance of altcoins relative to Bitcoin.

Bitcoin's market share remains at around 58%, as well as the horizontal trend of the Total2/BTC ratio, support this view. While individual gains such as Zcash and QNT are eye-catching, it is unclear whether they represent widespread movement across the market.

Therefore, the development that really needs to be observed in the altcoin market is not the increase in individual currencies, but whether the altcoin as a whole has begun to surpass Bitcoin. According to Liu, this pattern has not yet taken shape, so it is too early to conclude that the widespread altcoin season has begun.