比特币反弹至84,000美元上方，面临85,000美元阻力

Bitcoin rebounded strongly on Monday, breaking through the US$84,000 mark.

On Monday, Bitcoin successfully recovered and climbed above US$84,000 after experiencing a sharp decline in its price late last week. Ethereum and Ripple (XRP) also rebounded immediately, recovering to US$2,500 and US$1.40 respectively, and the entire cryptocurrency market gradually regained its lost ground.

Key Support Levels and Technical Outlook

Despite the market rebound, analysts pointed out that Bitcoin's technical indicators still show mixed signals. Currently, the price of the cryptocurrency remains above the key daily exponential moving average (EMA), which supports a bullish technical structure in the short term. Bitcoin is trading at US$84,110, comfortably above the 50-day EMA (US$80,195), 100-day EMA (US$76,411), and 200-day EMA (US$75,744).

The market generally believes that as long as prices remain above these levels, it confirms that the recent decline has not changed the overall upward trend. Ethereum's return to above $2,500 and Ripple's return to above $1.40 are seen as signals that the major altcoins are stabilizing after last week's losses.

Bitcoin's Relative Strength Index (RSI) is close to 55, indicating that buying momentum is moderate and there is still room for further gains if demand strengthens. However, the Smooth Similarity Moving Average (MACD) remains below the zero-axis, implying persistent price weakness and warning that the current recovery has not yet evolved into a sustained strong rebound.

Bitcoin's major exponential moving averages are: 50-day EMA of $80,195, 100-day EMA of $76,411, and 200-day EMA of $75,744, providing dynamic support as the market digested early fluctuations. Technical analysts see $85,000 as a key resistance level. If the daily closing price can break through this horizontal barrier, it will further consolidate the current bullish trend; if it cannot break through, market participants may weigh the sustainability of the recovery, leading to a further consolidation stage of prices.

Support/Resistance Price Main Resistance $85,00050 EMA$80,195100 EMA$76,411200 EMA$75,744 Long-range Support $66,500 / $62,300 External Pressure and ETF Fund Flow

Large-scale redemptions of U.S. listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continue to weigh on market sentiment. According to analyst firm SoValue, the spot Bitcoin ETF experienced a net outflow of $681 million last week, the largest weekly redemption since June.

U.S. Treasury yields rose, hitting a 24-year high in the first week of October, further dampening demand for risky assets such as cryptocurrencies. Market analysts warned that whether Bitcoin can remain above $82,000 amid continued market volatility is a key factor in avoiding another decline. ETF products allow investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin without directly holding assets, while capital outflows often indicate weakening institutional interest.

Mini Dictionary: The Spot Bitcoin ETF is a fund traded on a traditional exchange that tracks the price of Bitcoin assets by holding them directly, allowing institutional and retail investors to gain Bitcoin investment exposure without having to manage digital wallets.

Macroeconomic and geopolitical factors

The rebound in the cryptocurrency market follows an agreement announced by U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday that stipulates that Russia supply 300,000 tons of diesel to domestic and foreign buyers. Trump described the deal as a partial relaxation of U.S. sanctions on Russian petroleum products and claimed that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to immediately stop attacks on energy infrastructure.

However, the Ukraine authorities said they were not involved in such agreements. Russian troops continue to launch attacks on Ukraine's energy grid, exacerbating the uncertainty behind the announcement and causing fluctuations in global energy prices. Against the backdrop of these geopolitical developments, the prices of Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies continue to reflect broader concerns about economic growth, energy markets and asset risk.

"A decisive breakthrough of US$85,000 will open the way for a new rebound; but if buyers fail to clear this resistance level, Bitcoin may continue to trade sideways as the market reassesses near-term risks and opportunities."

On the downside, analysts pointed to dynamic support at the 50th EMA and noted that in the event of a deeper decline, market focus would shift to the 100th and 200th levels. Horizontal support further away remains at $66,500 and $62,300, which serve as reference points when volatility returns.