Bitcoin needs to exceed $81,700 to confirm bull market

Bitcoin stagnated after two weeks of gains of 24%, key resistance analysis

After a two-week gain of 24%, Bitcoin (BTC) has stopped its upward momentum and is currently stagnant at about US$77,000. According to CryptoQuant, market momentum remains bullish, but its confirmation depends on a precise threshold: $81,700, the position of the 365-day moving average. However, before reaching this level, the market still needs to absorb a lot of supply pressure. In addition, Bitcoin faces two new resistance levels at $83,600 and $88,700.

Summary of Core Points

• Bitcoin rose 24% in two weeks before recovering weakly and hovering around $77,000.
• The first resistance range lies between US$77,100 and US$80,200, which is under pressure due to significant selling by long-term holders.
• US$81,700 is the key threshold: According to CryptoQuant analysis, a breakthrough at this level could confirm a new bull market.
• Bitcoin still faces two resistance levels of US$83,600 and US$88,700, posing a risk of profit-taking.
• If there is a correction, support will be around US$70,000 and US$62,000 to 65,000 respectively.

Important selling areas suppress Bitcoin's upside

Bitcoin's rebound first encountered a resistance range of $77,100 to $80,200. Julio Moreno, research director at CryptoQuant, explained: "The trend is still constructive, but there is a wall of resistance ahead." This barrier corresponds to an area where long-term holders have sold up to 539,000 BTC units during a month-long period this year.

Such concentrated selling gives meaning to the dimensions on the resistance chain. Moreno described it as "the closest and most important on-chain supply resistance above current prices." Therefore, after achieving a two-week rebound of 24%, Bitcoin must absorb this supply to continue its rally. The main question now is no longer the size of the rebound, but whether the market has the ability to surpass this concentrated selling area of BTC that is enough to suppress prices.

In this context, the main benchmark indicators proposed by CryptoQuant focus on the following three data points:

• Prices rose 24% in two weeks before fatigue;
• US$77,100 to US$80,200, the supply resistance area identified above;
• 539,000 BTC, which is the largest transaction volume sold by long-term holders in the region within 30 days this year.

US$81,700 as confirmation signal for new bullish cycle

CryptoQuant believes the decisive $81,700 lies above the first resistance zone mentioned above. Currently, this level is equivalent to Bitcoin's 365-day moving average and is the first significant technical resistance level pointed out by Moreno. Analysts recalled that historically, Bitcoin's bull market "officially" started whenever prices close above that moving average.

Therefore, according to CryptoQuant's analysis, a clear breakthrough of US$81,700 will confirm the arrival of a new bull market. This is a more cautious view: Without a clear breakthrough, Bitcoin will continue to fluctuate within its range. Therefore, the threshold is not a commitment to growth, but a condition for confirmation. This distinction makes the interpretation of the market more nuanced. Although the market as a whole is still constructive, the expected technical signals have not yet been obtained.

Other resistance after breaking through US$81,700

Even if a breakthrough occurs, the road ahead is still full of challenges. According to CryptoQuant analysis, the new resistance level is at $83,600. This resistance stems from the "3x Metcalfe Belt", a model that determines Bitcoin's value based on network activity, particularly underlying active addresses. Moreno said these bands had marked important levels in previous cycles. For example, when Bitcoin hit a record high of $126,000 in October 2025, the 3x band was close to $138,000; while when BTC first hit $100,000 in December 2024, the 2x band was close to the price.

Additional selling pressure is expected to appear around $88,700, which is the upper limit of the real-time price model implemented by CryptoQuant traders, which follows their average buying cost. Moreno added: "The cap marks the area historically where profit-taking has occurred for traders."

Potential support levels

If the market moves in the opposite direction, analysts point to the first support level at around US$70,000, corresponding to the 200-day moving average; followed by the US$62,000 to US$65,000 range, where long-term holders have purchased nearly 476,000 BTC units this year.

To sum up, the pattern described by CryptoQuant remains favorable without treating recovery as a given fact. Moreno concluded: "The overall picture remains bullish, and Bitcoin only needs to absorb the supply above and break through its valuation ceiling before a new upward wave can unfold." Between continuous resistance levels and a lower accumulation area,$81,700 is now the key level to determine the confirmation of a bull market scenario.