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BTC The Federal Reserve raised interest rates and the bill was frustrated. Why is Bitcoin still regarded as the target of "gold parity"?
The Federal Reserve has announced interest rates for the first time since 2023, gold has outperformed Bitcoin in the past year, and the Senate has just vetoed the most important legislation in the cryptocurrency space. However, Bill Miller IV, chief investment officer of Miller Value Partners, considered all factors and still set a valuation target for Bitcoin to be parity with gold.
Intrinsic value: If it is benchmarked against gold, the price of Bitcoin may reach US$1.6 million.
Miller pointed out in an interview with The Street Roundtable: "If the trading value of Bitcoin is the same as gold, then its price will increase by about 20 times from its current level." He added,"That means the price of a single Bitcoin will reach $1.6 million. To me, this is its intrinsic value."
Currently, the market value of gold is about US$31.8 trillion, while the market value of Bitcoin is only about US$1.6 trillion, accounting for about 5% of the market value of gold. If this gap is to be closed and Bitcoin reaches the same market value as gold, the price of each Bitcoin will be close to $1.66 million.
Against the trend: Markets remain strong amid interest rate hikes and failed bills
米勒发表上述言论之际，正值一个充满波折的罕见周。9月15日，《清晰度法案》（Clarity Act）在参议院以49票对50票未能通过 cloture vote（终结辩论投票）。次日，美联储以12比0的全票一致决定将基准利率上调25个基点至3.75%-4.00%。主席凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）表示，通胀“过高且持续时间过长”，委员会预计12月还将有一次加息。
通常被视为对流动性高度敏感资产的比特币，当周 nonetheless 上涨了超过6%。尽管其价格仍比10月份创下的12.6万美元的历史高点低约30%，但这一走势表明市场并未完全受制于传统的宏观预期。
核心逻辑：比特币是资本稳定性的象征
对于比特币为何能在不利宏观环境下上涨，米勒的解释是：比特币从来都不是对下一次美联储会议结果的押注。“我认为应该将比特币视为一种资本过程稳定性的代表，”他说，“除了需要创造更多货币以满足政客们做出的各种承诺外，围绕资本的稳定性几乎不存在其他保障。”
He singled out the ballooning fiscal deficit. As of the first ten months of fiscal 2026, the U.S. deficit has soared to US$1.8 trillion and is expected to exceed the US$2 trillion mark. "The deficit is roughly equivalent to Bitcoin's current total market value," Miller said."From this year alone, we will have to create new currency units equal to the size of the entire Bitcoin market."
Valuation advantage: Enjoy attributes that surpass gold at one-fifth of the price
Regarding gold, Miller believes the current discount is a mispricing. He pointed out that Bitcoin is "better than gold, but its trading valuation is only a fraction of gold's," and listed many advantages "transparency, supply curve visibility, portability, security, etc."
He said that gold's 18% increase in the past year was in line with a cyclical pattern of "a cycle that lasts about 12 to 14 months," in which gold often leads the gains first, and then Bitcoin re-establishes itself.
Long-term perspective: The long journey of infrastructure construction
Why did it take Bitcoin 17 years to occupy 5% of the gold market? Miller responded: "It took a hundred years for modern piping systems to move from possibility to popularization. Therefore, we should expect that this process will continue to be lengthy. Although it's a long time, it's a great place to store capital."
In fact, Miller made the same point in "The Street Roundtable" as early as 2024. At that time, the market value of Bitcoin was US$1.3 trillion, and he believed that achieving gold parity was "baked in the cake."
