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BTC 比特币第三季度涨幅达43.5%，逼近历史纪录
2026年第三季度，比特币价格大幅上涨约43.5%。尽管此前两个季度均出现亏损，但这一表现使其成为历史上第三强劲的单季涨幅，仅次于2017年创下的80.41%的回报率。
根据CoinGlass的数据，比特币第三季度的平均历史回报率为8.73%，中位数为2.29%。相比之下，今年前三季度的涨幅远超这一历史基准。在CoinGlass收录的14个第三季度数据中，有8个季度呈现上涨态势，但大多数涨幅都远小于当前的水平。
扭转上半年的颓势
此次强劲反弹逆转了比特币此前的季度走势。数据显示，比特币在第一季度下跌了22.2%，第二季度下跌了14.09%。截至九月，根据CoinGecko的数据，比特币价格徘徊在84,800美元附近。不过，随着九月剩余交易时段的推进，最终的历史排名仍有变数。
从历史数据来看，近年来的第三季度涨幅相对温和：2025年第三季度比特币上涨6.31%，2024年则不足1%。而早期的表现则波动极大，例如2014年第三季度暴跌39.74%，2019年下跌22.86%，2023年下跌11.54%。这充分说明了第三季度表现的极度不稳定性。
超越多数历史高点
Looking back on the past, Bitcoin rose by 25.01% in the third quarter of 2021 and by 17.97% in 2020. These two years have been strong years in history, but neither of them has reached the current quarter's increase of approximately 43.5%. This year's increase is even nearly three percentage points higher than the 40.6% in the same period in 2013.
Historical performance in the fourth quarter provides background reference
Historical data in the fourth quarter provides further background reference for the market, although past results do not directly predict price movements in the next quarter. Data showed that Bitcoin's average return in the fourth quarter was 77.07%, and the median was 47.73%, both much higher than the third quarter. For example, Bitcoin surged 479.59% in the fourth quarter of 2013 and rose 215.07% in 2017; however, there was also a 23.07% decline in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Overall, Bitcoin's significant recovery in the third quarter not only made up for the losses in the first half of the year, but its increase was only after 2017. As the September trading day ends, this historic comparison will finally be finalized, and the remaining trading days will remain important for the final ranking.
