Bitcoin expected to reach US$1 million by 2030? Arthur Hayes analyzes AI credit risk

Arthur Hayes reiterated Bitcoin's forecast of reaching US$1 million in 2030: debt pressures related to AI infrastructure

Hayes's forecast points out that the price of Bitcoin will reach US$1 million by 2030, and the increase will accelerate between 2027 and 2028. Its core argument is that aging AI hardware and long repayment periods can lead to credit losses. Apollo estimates that AI financing could support more than $2 trillion in additional investment-grade debt. In addition, U.S. insurance regulators have introduced reporting changes for private credit positions, which will take effect at the end of 2026.

AI Liquidity injection expectations triggered by the credit crunch

According to Walter Bloomberg, Arthur Hayes, chief investment officer (CIO) of Maelstrom, predicts that Bitcoin's strongest rally will occur in late 2027 or early 2028. Based on this outlook, Hayes 'proposed $1 million Bitcoin target is based on his view that a downturn in AI investment could lead governments and central banks to inject money into the financial system.

Maelstrom CIO Arthur Hayes predicts that Bitcoin may reach US$1 million in 2029, with the strongest rebound coming in late 2027 or early 2028. His argument is: The AI infrastructure bubble bursts as data center revenue fails to justify huge investments...

In a hypothetical scenario, Hayes predicts that financial pressures will arise if data center revenue fails to cover the huge amount of money spent on construction and computing equipment. His expected rebound in Bitcoin depends on how policymakers respond to losses to borrowers and financial institutions, measures aimed at expanding liquidity.

Analogy to the 2008 subprime crisis rather than the 2000 tech bubble

In an August 5 report, crypto.news covered Hayes 'argument about the "AI credit crisis" that treats most infrastructure spending as debt-backed real estate development. His arguments focus on land, buildings, power connections and cooling systems, and processors that could depreciate in value as new equipment becomes cheaper and more efficient.

Hayes compares this financing risk to an early market meltdown, saying the boom was: "Like the credit story of 2008, not like the profit story of 2000."

In his view, the danger is not just a fall in technology stocks. Banks, insurance companies, private lenders and infrastructure investors could all face losses if the profits earned by the project are not enough to pay interest, leases and other obligations. Hayes also believes that profitable technology companies may remain healthy, while weaker projects and their financiers are in trouble. As a result, his forecast focuses on the debt that underpins construction, rather than requiring every major AI company to suffer an earnings collapse.

mismatch between hardware life and financing term

mismatch between hardware life and longer financing term explains why he focuses on 2027 and 2028. Hayes predicts that equipment will age and that borrowers will still be responsible for repayments arranged when revenue expectations are higher.

在8月的报道中，Hayes预测宣布的AI资本支出的增长将在2027年下半年开始放缓，并在2028年变得更加明显。他还预计，投资者最终会青睐那些减少建设计划的公司。

尽管Hayes指出了可能的压力时期，但他承认他无法指明引发危机的借款人，也无法确定比特币的确切底部。他在8月的场景中包含比特币在60,000至70,000美元之间交易，下行可能接近50,000美元，随后最终上涨至100万美元。

截至9月22日，对其“AI债务流动性”论点的报道描述了一个更具体的担忧：AI训练和服务需求的减弱可能会破坏数据中心、芯片购买及相关贷款背后的收入假设。

在其《安全第一》一文中，Hayes认为，降低计算成本的举措可能会损害基于更重支出预期的基础设施投资。他写道，即使客户购买的计算能力少于贷款人和开发商的预期，债务义务仍然存在。

Apollo估算AI融资延伸至私人债务

Apollo的独立研究为这一建设背后的融资需求提供了数据。在8月14日的笔记中，首席经济学家Torsten Slok估计，AI生态系统可能支持超过2万亿美元的额外投资级债务。

Apollo said public investment-grade markets may absorb less than $1 trillion by 2030 due to issuer concentration and credit rating related constraints. The company expects more than $1 trillion in financing to go into private placement placements, infrastructure loans, equipment financing and project-specific structures.

Using data to July, Apollo also said AI-related lending already accounted for nearly 40% of the supply of long-term investment-grade corporate bonds. Its research views private financing as a way to meet demand, with collateral and contractual protection provided in some transactions.

Potential U.S. policy response paths

For potential U.S. policy responses, Hayes described two paths in Security First. Washington could buy computing power to support the industry, become what he calls a "buyer of last resort" or provide financial assistance to insurance companies facing losses due to losses on AI-related debt.

In both cases, Hayes expects this response to increase the money supply and support Bitcoin prices. A September 22 report stated that U.S. authorities have not announced any measures to deal with the AI debt crisis.

U.S. insurance regulators tighten reports on private credit

The National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) has identified liquidity, pricing, and transparency issues in private credit, which establish a direct U.S. link to the lending risks discussed by Hayes.

根据其指南，对估值、贷款标准和行业暴露的担忧导致一些零售私人信贷基金出现提款请求。一些工具使用了提款限制，而受AI颠覆影响的软件借款人受到了更严格的审查。

该协会表示，这些发展并不一定表明私人信贷市场或保险公司持仓的全面恶化。州监管机构和NAIC工作人员正在监控信用质量、估值实践和保险公司投资。

根据2025年通过的修正案，NAIC要求在年度更新或评级变化后90天内提交私人评级理由报告。根据协会对要求的解释，这些报告必须包含分析实质内容。

对于年度财务申报，NAIC法定会计原则工作组已通过变更，将于2026年底生效，以改善保险公司私人信贷持仓的报告。