Bitcoin fell to US$80,350, the liquidation amount exceeded US$1 billion, and new holders cut their m

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Bitcoin fell to the US$80,000 mark, market volatility intensified

On Thursday, the price of Bitcoin on the Bitstamp platform fell to US$80,350, the lowest level since September 18. According to CoinGlass data, in the 24 hours ending 10 a.m. UTC on Friday, the total amount of cryptocurrency clearing reached US$1.09 billion, of which long positions accounted for US$1.05 billion.

Meanwhile, according to CryptoQuant data, short-term holders transferred 55,600 bitcoins to the exchange at a loss on Thursday. This number exceeds the size of Bitcoin trading on June 26, when the price of Bitcoin was below $60,000. However, the price of Bitcoin recovered to about $82,500 on Friday.

Analysis of incentives for decline

The sell-off followed the news disclosed in chain data: the U.S. government transferred 12,267 bitcoins worth more than US$1 billion on Wednesday. Hours earlier, government-related wallets had sent $770 million worth of BTC to Coinbase Prime Wallet. Arkham linked the large transfer to coins recovered from a 2016 Bitfinex hack.

Traders generally interpret such exchange transfers as potential sell signals. It is currently estimated that the U.S. government holds 328,372 bitcoins, so any sign of sale will attract high market attention. Although Cointelegraph reported that no actual sales occurred and the identity of the recipient of the large transfer was unknown, market concerns still exist.

In addition, other stress factors also appeared on the same day. Reports of a possible new U.S. strike on Iran pushed WTI crude oil prices to $93.20 and Brent crude oil to $105.88. At the same time, the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.73%, setting a 24-year high.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said that further interest rates are highly likely. Futures market data shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in December exceeds 70%. The Fed's current target interest rate range is 3.75% to 4%.

Continued outflows of funds

The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF suffered a net outflow of $484.9 million on Wednesday, the largest one-day outflow since June 25. Another $244.1 million was withdrawn on Thursday. As of now, the cumulative outflow from Bitcoin funds in October is US$407.4 million, and the Ethereum funds are US$578.9 million.

Taken together, outflows reached US$986.3 million in just over a week. Ethereum Fund has experienced capital losses for eight consecutive trading days. Glassnode pointed out that a rebound in spot trading volume and an increase in ETF buying are needed to confirm the effectiveness of recent breakthroughs.

Review of Bitcoin's Trend

Bitcoin hit a peak of nearly US$126,000 in October 2025, and then experienced several months of decline. In early February this year, its price once slipped to around $60,000 and rebounded. It fell again in late June, with multi-year lows near $57,000.

The recovery began in early July. Bitcoin rose from $73,000 to $79,500 on August 21, generating a short liquidation of $1.3 billion that day. That was the last trading day before Thursday with a higher liquidation total.

Subsequently, Bitcoin closed at US$84,467 in the week of September 21, setting its highest weekly closing price since January. The third quarter ended with an increase of about 44%. Spot ETFs absorbed approximately US$2.4 billion in funds during the week, the strongest performance since October 2025.

However, this rally has now subsided. Bitcoin returned to the $81,000 mark for the first time on October 8 (since September 21), but has now given up most of its end-September gains.

Analysis of Key Points

Analyst Rekt Capital pointed out that US$82,500 is the key level that determines the next market structure of Bitcoin. This price was once the breakthrough point in the "Inverse Head-and-Shouders" pattern. Bitcoin must hold on to this support level to confirm a trend reversal.

He warned that if the weekly close falls below $82,500, the level will turn into resistance and Bitcoin will return to the macro accumulation range. Bitcoin's 50-week moving average lies around $78,200, the next important indicator for traders to focus on.