Coinbase calls for action to address quantum security risks associated with Bitcoin

Urges early preparations: Coinbase urges the Bitcoin community to begin work on post-quantum cryptography defenses.

Coinbase calls on Bitcoin developers and the commercial community to start working on post-quantum cryptography defenses immediately. The company notes that due to the lengthy process involved in changing the consensus mechanism of the Bitcoin network and the need for widespread adaptation across the ecosystem, preparations must be underway before quantum computers with cryptographic capabilities become widely available.

The exchange stated that it holds approximately 5% of Bitcoin in the form of assets for banks, asset management companies, and hedge funds. It also released a position statement on “post-quantum readiness,” outlining four priority areas: flexible output and address design, phased implementation, reliable cryptographic implementations, and separate policies for cryptocurrencies that are temporarily not used or will be migrated later.

Technical frameworks and potential threats

At the technical level, Coinbase has identified two existing Bitcoin Improvement Proposals (BIPs) as frameworks for adapting to future post-quantum signature types: P2QRH (BIP-360) and P2TRv2. Both designs focus on flexible output structures, aiming to seamlessly replace existing signature algorithms as standards evolve, thereby avoiding the need for further consensus changes in the future.

The transaction signature and ownership model of Bitcoin relies on elliptic curve cryptography, specifically the secp256k1 curve. In theory, a powerful quantum computer capable of running the Shor algorithm could derive the private key from exposed public keys. However, practical obstacles currently exist, as no publicly known machines possess such capabilities.

a16z Crypto 的研究人员 Justin Thaler 指出，目前尚无公开进展支持“五年内出现能破解 secp256k1 的密码学意义量子计算机”这一观点。但他强调，比特币现在就需要规划，因为协议治理和活跃币种的迁移过程缓慢且困难。Thaler 写道，量子对比特币的威胁是真实的，但时间压力并非来自迫在眉睫的量子硬件，而是来自比特币自身的约束条件。

NIST 标准提供政策背景

此次呼吁正值美国联邦标准出台之际。2024 年 8 月 13 日，美国国家标准与技术研究院（NIST）发布了三项后量子密码学标准：FIPS 203（源自 CRYSTALS-KYBER）、FIPS 204（CRYSTALS-Dilithium）和 FIPS 205（SPHINCS+）。此外，NIST 还选择了 FALCON 用于即将发布的 FIPS 206，并计划于 2025 年 3 月选择 HQC 进行标准化。这些算法将是联邦机构预计采用的密钥封装和数字签名方案。

比特币并不强制采用 NIST 标准，其去中心化治理意味着没有单一权威机构可以指定升级路径。但是，已发布并经同行评审的后量子算法的存在，消除了一项此前合理的反对意见：即标准尚未足够完善以作为基础。Coinbase 首选的灵活地址设计方法，部分正是为了应对这种不确定性的消除，允许网络在后量子格局持续发展的过程中更新签名方案，而无需反复进行硬分叉。

Market reactions and regulatory environments: The involvement of Coinbase is a sign of planning, not evidence that Bitcoin is currently facing risks. Currently, there are no confirmed quantum attacks against the secp256k1 algorithm. The company’s documents clearly indicate that this effort is aimed at preparing for threats that may not become apparent for several years. For developers and businesses, the key question is whether Bitcoin’s upgrade process will be fast enough once the threats become more concrete. Coinbase believes that the answer depends on efforts started today. For holders and institutions, specific protocol proposals and widespread adoption signals are more important than mere headlines about quantum computing. It would be more informative to see whether proposals like BIP-360 or P2TRv2 have gained traction among Core developers, as well as whether exchanges, wallets, and hosting providers begin coordinating migration plans. Given that Coinbase holds approximately one-fifth of all Bitcoin assets, its delay in implementing such changes poses direct financial risks. This explains why it is pushing this issue now, rather than waiting for consensus to form naturally. As of publication, the price of Bitcoin was $83,399, down 0.30% in 24 hours. Its market value is nearly $1.68 trillion, with daily trading volume reaching around $27.3 billion. The Crypto Fear-Greed Index is at 62, indicating “greed” levels, suggesting that the market has not priced in any recent premiums or discounts related to quantum security.The regulatory environment is also undergoing changes. Coinbase has been actively involved in various aspects of Bitcoin policy-making. The issue of how institutions can hold and protect Bitcoins has gained increasing attention from policymakers. Quantum-resistant capabilities add a technical dimension to these discussions, and exchanges, custodians, and policymakers need to work together to address this issue. As Coinbase continues to expand its base of institutional customers, these discussions become increasingly important for its core business.

Today’s announcement does not change the fundamental nature of the Bitcoin network: the difficulty adjustment continues to be adjusted every 2,016 blocks, maintaining the mining economics. The fixed limit of 21 million Bitcoins remains intact, and any quantum-resistant upgrades must preserve these characteristics. If an upgrade is implemented, it will need to replace the underlying cryptographic primitives while still maintaining these features.