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FollowingThe IMF warns that global public debt is approaching a post-war high, and calls for countries to reduce their deficits.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) urges governments around the world to cut fiscal deficits. It also warns that as public debt approaches 100% of GDP—a level not seen since World War II—rising bond yields are pushing up borrowing costs.
Key data and trends
According to data and analysis released by the IMF, here are some key points regarding the current situation:
- Borrowing costs have increased significantly in G7 countries: Between February and September, the average yield on 10-year government bonds in the G7 countries rose by more than 110 basis points.
- U.S. interest expenses have surged: By 2031, U.S. interest expenses are expected to account for over 5% of GDP, which is roughly equivalent to the size of social security spending. Before the pandemic, this ratio was only 2.8%.
- Low-income countries are bearing a heavy burden: In low-income countries, interest expenses currently account for over 15% of tax revenues. In contrast, the average percentage during 2011–2019 was around 9%.
- Long-term financing costs are rising: By 2031, the average level of government financing costs is expected to rise from 2.3% in 2021 to 3.7%.
delaying reforms will only increase the burden
基金组织官员警告，延迟财政整顿只会使最终的调整过程更加痛苦。IMF财政事务部门负责人罗德里戈·瓦尔德斯（Rodrigo Valdes）及其副手埃拉·达布拉-诺里斯（Era Dabla-Norris）在一篇博客文章中指出，借贷成本的上升使得可信的财政紧缩措施变得更为紧迫。
本周，各国官员聚集在曼谷参加IMF和世界银行的年度会议。在此期间，IMF敦促发达经济体及其他国家减少支出、削减赤字并降低债务水平，强调拖延只会让解决问题变得更加困难。
多重因素推高收益率
IMF指出，G7国家10年期政府债券收益率在过去几个月内升至近二十年来的最高水平。推动这一走势的因素包括高油价、持续的通货膨胀、强劲的投资需求以及超出预期的人工智能（AI）行业增长。
此外，富裕经济体正在以较短的期限再融资更多债务，这意味着更高的利率能更快地影响预算。目前，G7国家和西班牙的近30%债务将在一年内到期。由于通胀率高于目标水平，央行可能会维持高利率，这也加剧了财政压力。
政策建议：立即行动
瓦尔德斯在接受采访时坦言，今年的财政表现比六个月前预期的更差，也比一年前的情况更糟。他表示，大多数国家目前的策略是增加而非减少支出。
“There is no way to escape the current financial dynamics,” said Walters bluntly.
Dabrah Norris pointed out that countries “need to take action immediately,” especially those with high levels of debt, in order to make room for increased defense spending and addressing issues related to aging populations.
Background and risk warnings
This warning is based on the “Financial Monitoring Report” released by the IMF in April this year. The report predicts that global public debt will reach 100% of GDP by 2029, one year earlier than predicted in 2025. At that time, it was noted that global debt would be slightly below 94% of GDP in 2025, and it was warned that the safety premium associated with U.S. government bonds was decreasing, which became a growing concern.
