Circle's second-quarter results were mixed, with shares giving up 7% gains

Circle shares retracted a 7% early gain on mixed second-quarter results and concerns about weak USDC activity.

Summary

Circle reported revenue of $701 million, below Wall Street's forecast of $717 million. Earnings per share reached $0.18, slightly above the consensus market expectation of $0.17. Mizuho maintains its "weaker-than-market" rating on the stock and a price target of $45. With continued short momentum, CRCL trading prices were close to the key support level of $58.04.

Circle's earnings exceeded expectations, but revenue fell short of expectations

Circle Internet Group's second-quarter fiscal 2026 results were mixed, sending investors conflicting signals about the USDC issuer's financial performance. Quarterly revenue reached $701 million, below Wall Street's forecast of $717 million. However, earnings per share were $0.18, slightly above the consensus market forecast of $0.17. Net profit also exceeded expectations. The company posted a profit of $48 million for the quarter, compared with analysts 'expectations of $45.8 million.

The market reacted positively initially, with CRCL shares rising about 7% shortly after the report was released. But the rally faded as investors assessed revenue that fell short of expectations and weak operating trends behind apparent profit data. Circle shares then fell about 3%, trading around $61.39, after hitting $63.25 in the previous session. The stock has fallen more than 20% since the beginning of the year.

Mizuho remains bearish and gives a $45 Circle target price

After the earnings release, Mizuho maintained its "weaker-than-market" rating on Circle and maintained its target price of $45. The price target means the stock has about 27% room to fall from current levels. The brokerage agency pointed out that USDC liquidity fell month-on-month, and on-chain trading volume fell 31% month-on-month. These data suggest that although Circle profits exceeded expectations, stablecoin activity weakened during the reporting period. Margin pressure is another concern. Circle's adjusted EBITDA margin fell 329 basis points from a year earlier, indicating a decrease in operating profit retained by the company from revenue.

Mizuho's assessment appears to have caused a stock price reversal by shifting attention from earnings exceeding expectations to Circle's underlying operating performance. The bearish rating also contrasts with management's stronger full-year outlook.

Circle raises USDC and revenue guidance

Circle expects USDC liquidity to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 40%, indicating its confidence that its demand for dollar-backed stablecoins will recover and expand in the longer term. The company also raised its other revenue forecast to $310 million to $330 million. Its previous guidance was US$150 million to US$170 million, making the revised range one of the most positive updates in the report. Circle raised its RLDC margin forecast to a range of 41.7% to 43.7%, compared with the previous range of 38% to 40%. The adjusted operating expense guidance remains unchanged at $570 million to $585 million.

This outlook provides investors with a potential growth case, but Circle must demonstrate that higher USDC liquidity translates into stronger trading activity and more durable profit margins.

CRCL shares test support near $58

CRCL's daily chart remains bearish after shares retreated from their May highs of around $140.04. The stock is currently trading just above the main support level of $58.04, which marks the bottom of the Fibonacci range measured on the chart. Aroon indicators show that sellers are still in control. The Aroon Down indicator is 85.71%, while the Aroon Up indicator is 21.43%. The Awesome Oscillator is also still below the zero axis, reporting minus 5.53, confirming that kinetic energy has not yet turned positive.

A decisive break below US$58.04 could exacerbate the decline and bring Mizuho's US$45 price target to more attention. If buyers can hold on to support, CRCL will need to first regain the $63 to $65 zone before attempting to recover towards the 78.6% Fibonacci level of $75.59.

Circle also received a limited purpose trust charter issued by the New York Department of Financial Services on July 31. The approval puts Circle Internet Trust Company under state regulatory oversight for its USDC offering, adding a catalyst at the U.S. regulatory level as investors weigh the company's mixed financial and operational signals.