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25-year bull market in gold highlights bitcoin's safe-haven value

2026-08-15 12:08:48
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The trickiest part of Mike Wilson's view is not gold itself, but the word "defensive"

Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist and chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley, told Bloomberg that gold has been in a bull market for 25 years and still serves as a portfolio "shield". For cryptocurrency allocators, this formulation is not just a restatement of an ancient macro trading strategy, but also puts the narrative of "digital gold" under new scrutiny-a test that Bitcoin rarely passes during stock market declines.

The key is not that gold prices rise, but that gold behaves differently when other assets in the portfolio collapse. A quarter-century bull market is enough to cover multiple credit cycles, a global financial crisis, an epidemic, and several inflation scares. This durability is exactly what investors seek when turning to gold. In contrast, Bitcoin has demonstrated for most of its history that it can be liquid, global and censory-resistant, but it has not demonstrated that it can escape risky assets when volatility soars.


The comparison of "digital gold" has always faced the same problem

The term "digital gold" implies a natural connection between the two assets, but the actual performance is not so clear. During periods of sharp stock market sell-offs, Bitcoin has repeatedly traded like a high-beta asset, while gold has tended to remain defensive. This distinction is crucial for institutional investment portfolios. Defensive configurations must remain "boring" at critical moments. Bitcoin has played multiple roles, but being consistently "boring" under pressure is not its characteristic.

This does not mean that Bitcoin is useless in a portfolio, but that its label needs to be changed. Many allocators view Bitcoin as a mixture: part commodity, part network equity, part currency experiment. Gold occupies the defensive segment, while Bitcoin gets another independent project. Wilson's view suggests that this stand-alone project is unlikely to replace gold in the short term, especially for investors whose main goal is to preserve capital rather than pursue yields.


Institutional funds may adopt a compromise strategy

Some institutions will not choose between two assets, but will hold both and assign them different roles. Gold is responsible for defense, while Bitcoin is responsible for exposure to digital scarcity and on-chain growth. This differentiation has already emerged in the development of real-world asset tokenization. As tokenized real-world assets attract more institutional attention, gold is becoming easier to package on-chain, which may instead strengthen its role rather than replace it.

At the same time, the regulatory shadow of the cryptocurrency itself still makes it difficult for Bitcoin to be promoted as a safe haven. The debate surrounding U.S. cryptocurrency legislation has kept such assets in a policy-sensitive category. Safe-haven assets typically do not require legislative bailouts to maintain their status.


The speculative nature of cryptocurrencies will not go away

Gold's defensive argument does not offset the risk-appetite appeal of cryptocurrencies, it just divides the two more clearly. When Wilson talks about portfolio protection, the cryptocurrency market is still generating the kind of fast-moving speculation that defines a very different group of investors. Even when macro traders turn to defensive assets, altcoin outbreaks and niche chain movements remain common.

The next test will not come from brand naming, but will be reflected in correlation data and how the allocator actually adjusts the size of the two assets. Gold has led the defensive discussion for 25 years. Bitcoin still needs to win this position in a market that constantly rewards speed rather than security.

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