Bitcoin slipped to $62,500, weekly closing risks suggest further decline

Bitcoin fell below $63,000, marking a key watershed in its weekly closing price.

Bitcoin prices fell further as Wall Street opened on Friday. Traders are increasingly concerned about whether the market is preparing for a new round of downward breakthroughs. Although good U.S. inflation data boosted overall risky assets, Bitcoin did not follow suit, but fell to near its month-to-date low, about $62,200.

Market attention has turned to the next important U.S. macro data release: the personal consumption expenditure index on August 26. This is the Fed's preferred inflation indicator. QCP Capital pointed out that the crypto market's flat response to slowing inflation makes the upcoming PCE data particularly critical for subsequent trends.

Core Points

Bitcoin fell below US$63,000. Although the U.S. stock market hit a record high, Bitcoin is approaching an August low. Rekt Capital emphasized $63.22 million as a key threshold for weekly closures, warning that a continued fall below this level could trigger a deeper decline. TradingView data showed that Bitcoin fell about 1.3% on the day to about US$62.57 million, close to its month-to-date low. QCP Capital believes that the PCE data to be released on August 26 will be the next key test to test whether macro benefits can be translated into continued demand in the crypto market.

Bitcoin lags behind record high stock market

According to TradingView data, Bitcoin fell about 1.3% against the U.S. dollar on the day to $62.57 million, trading near the lowest level since the beginning of the month. At the same time, U.S. stocks continued to climb, with the S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both closing up on Thursday-an environment that is usually good for risky assets.

This divergence is noteworthy because it shows that Bitcoin is not simply following an improving stock market trend. Previous reports have pointed out that easing inflationary pressures in the United States have lowered expectations for further interest rate hikes, but Bitcoin still lacks the follow-up buying that traders typically expect when macro conditions improve.

The weekly closing price of US$63.22 million became the key decision point.

One of the clearest signals in the near future is US$63.22 million. Trader and analyst Rekt Capital warned that weekly closing prices on Sunday must be above this level to avoid what he described as a "break" risk. In a post on the X platform, Rekt Capital also emphasized that the $63,000 no longer functions like a reliable support level after continuing to weaken in August.

Rekt Capital further linked the current structure to past market behavior, noting that a 50-month indexed moving average of approximately $65,827 appeared to constitute resistance. He likened this to a bear market model in 2022, emphasizing that Bitcoin will have difficulty in regaining key levels that typically help stabilize price movements in the near future.

For traders, the practical meaning is clear: If prices fail to regain momentum over the weekly timeframe, the market is approaching a critical point and the confirmation signal could shift from a "range volatility" to a "continuation of the downward trend."

Derivatives positions and liquidation risks are still of concern

Concerns about potential breaks are also related to positions in the derivatives market. Previous reports pointed out that as Bitcoin approaches the liquidity area around US$61,000 and open interest in futures and other derivatives markets rises, the possibility of a liquidation event is increasing.

This setting amplifies volatility when prices break downwards, especially when leverage is concentrated on one side of the market. On-chain analytics platform Glassnode summarizes this broader imbalance in its latest newsletter: "Traders add a lot of risk without the market showing corresponding demand, and most of it is long positions."

In this context, the market's inability to follow the stock market's rise is even more remarkable-if prices still lack demand supported by the macro narrative, then once the technical level falls, highly leveraged long positions will quickly become fragile.

August 26 PCE data becomes the next macro catalyst

In addition to technical factors, QCP Capital believes that the response of the crypto market to improving inflation has been inconsistent. In its latest analysis, the QCP said the phenomenon was "increasingly important" and distinguished between the concepts of "resilience" and "kinetic energy." The agency pointed out that Bitcoin absorbed a number of negative news last week without a sustained decline, but so far, weakening inflation data has only triggered a dull market reaction.

QCP's key point for investors is that markets may be waiting for a clearer macro signal rather than responding to incremental improvements. The agency said macro traders are currently focusing on the PCE index released on August 26-widely regarded as the Fed's preferred inflation indicator.

According to data cited by the QCP, based on data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the PCE's "last reading" in July recorded its first monthly decline since 2020. This makes the upcoming data particularly noteworthy: If the data strengthens the trend of cooling inflation, traders will be focusing on whether the crypto market can finally translate this narrative into continued buying demand, rather than continuing range swings or weakening.

At the same time, the key uncertainties lie in timing and conduction path. So far, the pattern described by the QCP suggests that the positive at the macro level is not yet strong enough to push the crypto market into a clear upward trend. With Bitcoin below key technical levels, the release of PCE data could affect whether leveraged traders choose to reduce risk or increase exposure-regardless of the direction of inflation data, which could affect market volatility.

On the eve of the release of the PCE report on August 26, traders are likely to pay attention to weekly technical levels close to $63.22 million and whether derivatives positions continue to accumulate long risk. If Bitcoin still fails to recover this threshold, the market may be ready for a more drastic downturn; if it does, investors will want to see whether the macro narrative will ultimately provide sustained momentum, rather than just a brief rebound.