Crypto business: Bitcoin soars, Wall Street is busy approving

Michael Thaler's Strategy needs active markets to finance its Bitcoin machine, Circle's outlook increasingly looks like a bet on the growth of dollar-denominated financial infrastructure, and the U.S. Treasury buyback program provides the backdrop for the recent surge in cryptocurrency stocks. This week's Crypto Business explores how this relationship reshapes the companies, balance sheets and networks behind the market rally. [TAG

Bitcoin rally drives cryptocurrency stocks soaring

Bitcoin's rally above $80,000 boosted cryptocurrency stocks, with miners and digital asset Treasury companies recording double-digit gains, helped by a broader recovery triggered by the US Treasury Department's plan to double the size of certain long-term bond buybacks. Canaan, MARA Holdings and Strike were among the biggest gainers over the past week, while Coinbase and Robinhood also posted gains. According to CoinMarketCap data, Bitcoin rose more than 23% weekly, while Ethereum rose nearly 30%, trading above $2500.

Markets also gained support from President Trump, who renewed his call for Congress to pass the CLARITY Act, although the bill remains stalled because lawmakers failed to push it forward before the August recess. The bill could establish clearer rules for the U.S. cryptocurrency market, while Trump separately revisited the possibility of the government buying bitcoin, but neither outcome has yet been determined.

Bernstein bets USDC ushers in a new growth cycle

Bernstein analysts are bullish on Circle, believing that a new growth cycle in its USDC stablecoin could significantly boost performance over the next 12 months as supply begins to grow again. In a research note Monday, the company said USDC supply increased by about $2 billion in seven days, ending a six-month period of stagnation or decline. Bernstein maintains an "outperform" rating on Circle with a price target of $140, which means about 60% room to rise. Circle shares have risen about 40% in the past month.

Analysts said the next round of growth could be driven by a recovery in the crypto market, clear U.S. regulation, tokenized capital markets and broader payment applications, while early signs of demand from AI agents have also emerged. USDC's share of adjusted trading volume has increased from approximately 40% in 2025 to more than 60% in 2026 so far, surpassing Tether's USDt on this indicator. Since Circle's IPO in June 2025 (offering price of $31), its share price has been volatile. After an initial surge after the IPO, stock prices fell back to near that level at the beginning of the cryptocurrency market downturn in November 2025.

USDC's share of stablecoin trading volume has increased significantly. Source: Bernstein

The real risk of the Strategy lies in capital market access, not Bitcoin prices

A report from Regime Intelligence pointed out that Strategy's main weakness is not the collapse in bitcoin prices, but the loss of access to capital markets, which could threaten its ability to meet its $1.76 billion in annual debt without selling BTC. The report stated that Strategy's 840,447 BTC holdings support $22 billion in debt and senior claims, and there are no margin calls linked to the price of Bitcoin. Its stress tests showed that Bitcoin needed to fall by 96%, before the company held enough Bitcoin to cover its convertible bonds. In addition, Strategy holds cash reserves that are 2.6 times its annual debt, while its Bitcoin holdings are worth $66.7 billion and a cost base of $63.36 billion.

"Even if the stock market crashes, Strategy's Bitcoin holdings will allow it to weather most storms safely. The company holds far more bitcoin than its annual cash debt,"said Kadan Stadelmann, co-founder of Komodo Platform. The greater risk lies in deteriorating financing conditions. A prolonged Bitcoin downturn, coupled with a decline in Strategy's share price and a decline in mNAV, could make it increasingly difficult to raise new capital, forcing the company to draw on reserves or sell Bitcoin. "Strategy's weakness is the need to issue capital to maintain the structure," Stadelmann said. If the stock market crashes, the company may have to abandon Bitcoin in its operating structure. "

Strategy has sold Bitcoin four times since May, although CEO Phong Le said the company has purchased more than 25 times during the same period and plans to resume purchases.

Despite selling Bitcoin four times since May, Strategy remains the largest holder of institutional Bitcoin. Source: BitcoinTreasuries. NET

Solana activity hits record, SOL surges 40%

Solana processed a record 4.2 billion online transactions in July, according to online data displayed by The Kobeissi Letter, and SOL subsequently rose 40%, exceeding $100 for the first time since February. Trading volume increased 13.5% from June and 91% from December, adding approximately 2 billion transactions during the period. The Kobeissi Letter also cited data from RWA.xyz, showing that nearly $4 billion in physical assets are currently tokenized on Solana, an increase of 11.8% from the previous month. Across all tracked networks, distributed RWA totals more than $38 billion.

The rally accelerated after the U.S. Treasury Department announced plans to double the size of certain long-term bond repurchases to at least $4 billion each, helping to drive down yields and boost risk appetite across the cryptocurrency market. Still, the rise in SOL is part of a broader market recovery, and continued growth in online activity may depend on further adoption of RWA and macroeconomic conditions.